Environmental and Resource Economics Review (자원ㆍ환경경제연구)

Korean Resource Economics Association (한국자원경제학회)
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The Impacts of Decision Order and Uncertainty on Emissions Trading

배출권거래제에서의 의사결정 순서와 불확실성 영향 분석

  • Received : 2016.08.22
  • Accepted : 2016.09.28
  • Published : 2016.09.30
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Abstract

Cap-and-trade policies that allow firms to trade emission allowances are designed to reduce emissions at least cost and are shown to be efficient when there is no uncertainty over emissions. This paper examines how uncertainty in emissions affects firms' decisions about permit purchase and abatement. The results show that whether firms abate more under uncertainty compared to a case with no uncertainty depends on the expected penalty cost and marginal abatement cost. If the expected marginal penalty cost is greater than the marginal abatement cost, the firm will choose to reduce emissions and abate more under uncertainty. When the expected marginal penalty is greater than the marginal cost of abatement, increases in uncertainty result in reduced emissions. This paper also examines whether the order of abatement and permit trading and the realization of uncertainty affect firms' decisions. The results show that total expected emissions are the same regardless of the order of moves.

배출권거래제는 기업으로 하여금 최저의 비용으로 감축을 유도하며 배출에 대한 불확실성이 없을 때 효율적인 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 연구는 배출에서의 불확실성이 기업의 배출권 구매와 감축에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 배출량이 확실한 경우보다 불확실할 때 기업이 더 많은 감축을 할 것인지는 한계기대벌금과 한계저감비용에 좌우되었다. 한계기대벌금이 한계 감축비용보다 크다면, 기업은 배출량이 확실한 경우보다 더 많이 감축하고 불확실성의 증가에 따라 배출량도 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 또한 감축과 배출권 구매의 순서가 기업의 결정에 미치는 영향을 분석하였으나, 의사결정의 순서와 상관없이 기대배출량은 동일한 것으로 확인되었다.

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References

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