DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

The Intensification of Walker Circulation over the Past 15 Years from 1999 and Its Relation to TC Activity in the Western North Pacific

  • Choi, Jae-Won (Research Planning and Management Division/National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Cha, Yumi (Research Planning and Management Division/National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Jeoung-Yun (Research Planning and Management Division/National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
  • Received : 2016.02.04
  • Accepted : 2016.10.28
  • Published : 2016.10.30

Abstract

The time-series of Walker circulation index (WCI) in this study shows the strengthening of the Walker circulation in recent years. To further understand the large-scale features related to the WCI strengthening, a difference between the averaged meteorological variables in two time periods 1999-2013 and 1984-1998 is analyzed. The difference in 850 hPa stream flows between the two periods shows that the anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) are dominant due to the strengthening of anomalous anticyclonic circulations at the subtropical Pacific of both hemispheres. The difference between the averaged zonal atmospheric circulations over $5^oS-5^oN$ in the two periods confirms that upward flows are strengthened at the tropical western Pacific and downward flows are strengthened at the tropical central and eastern Pacific in recent years. It matches the WCI strengthening in recent years. The time-series of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency from July to September shows that a mean TC genesis frequency from 1999-2013 decreases compared to that of the time period 1984-1998. The monsoon trough in the period 1984-1998 was located in the further east direction and stronger than that in the period 1999-2013. TCs in the recent period that are generated in further west than TCs in the past period moved from the west. Thus, the TC intensity along the coasts in East Asia becomes weaker in recent period. The intensification of Walker circulation in recent years is related to the weaker TC intensity in East Asia through strengthened anomalous anticyclones at the subtropical western Pacific.

Keywords

References

  1. Allan, R.J., Lindesay, J., and Parker D.E., 1996, El Nino: Southern Oscillation and Climatic Variability. CSIRO Publishing, 405 pp.
  2. Bouma, M.J. and Dye, C., 1997, Cycles of malaria associated with El Nino in Venezuela. Journal of American Medicine Association, 278, 1772-1774. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1997.03550210070041
  3. Burgman, R.J., Clement, A.C., Mitas, C.M., Chen, J., and Esslinger, K., 2008, Evidence for atmospheric variability over the Pacific on decadal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L01704, doi:10.1029/2007GL031830.
  4. Callaghan, J. and Power, S.B., 2011, Variability and decline in the number of severe tropical cyclones making landfall over eastern Australia since the late nineteenth century. Climate Dynamic, 37, 647-662, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0883-2.
  5. Chan, J.C.L., Gray, W.M., 1982, Tropical cyclone movement and surrounding flow relationships. Monthly Weather Review, 110, 1354-1374. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<1354:TCMASF>2.0.CO;2
  6. Chen, J., Del Genio, A.D., Carlson, B.E., and Bosilovich, M.G., 2008, The spatiotemporal structure of twentieth-century climate variations in observations and reanalyses. Part II: Pacific Pan-decadal variability. Journal of Climate, 21, 2634-2650. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2012.1
  7. Choi, K.S., Kang, K., Kim, D.W., Hwang, H.S., and Lee, S.R., 2009, A study on the characteristics of tropical cyclone passage frequency over the western North Pacific using empirical orthogonal function. Journal of Korean Earth Science Society, 30, 721-733. https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2009.30.6.721
  8. Choi, K.S. and Kim, T.R., 2011. Development of a diagnostic index on the approach of typhoon affecting Korean Peninsula. Journal of Korean Earth Science Society, 32, 347-359. https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2011.32.4.347
  9. Cummins, P.F., Lagerloef, G.S.E., and Mitchum, G., 2005, A regional index of northeast Pacific variability based on satellite altimeter data. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L17607, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023642.
  10. DiNezio, P., Clement, A., and Vecchi, G.A., 2010, Reconciling differing views of tropical Pacific climate change. EOS, 91, 141-142. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010EO160001
  11. Gill, A.E., 1982, Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics. Academic Press, 662 pp.
  12. George, J.E., Gray, W.M., 1976, Tropical cyclone motion and surrounding parameter relationships. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 15, 1252-1264. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1976)015<1252:TCMASP>2.0.CO;2
  13. Graham, N.E., 1994, Decadal-scale climate variability in the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results. Climate Dynamics, 10, 135-162. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00210626
  14. Hammer, G.L., Nicholls, N., Mitchell, C., Eds, 2000, Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems: The Australian Experience. Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library, Vol. 21, Kluwer Academic, 469 pp.
  15. Hwang, H.S, Byun, H.R., Lee, S.M., Choi, K.S., and Lee, J.S., 2010, Distribution of precipitation on the Korean Peninsula associated with the weakening of tropical cyclones. Journal of Korean Earth Science Society, 31, 322-334. https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2010.31.4.322
  16. Held, I.M. and Soden, B.J., 2006, Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Jouranl of Climate, 19, 5686-5699. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1
  17. Holmgren, M., Scheffer, M., Ezcurra, E., Gutierrez, J.R., and Mohrena, G.M.J., 2001, El Nino effects on the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Trends Ecology, 16, 89-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-5347(00)02052-8
  18. Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K.C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D., 1996, The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year reanalysis project. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 77, 437-471. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
  19. Karnauskas, K.B., Seager, R., Kaplan, A., Kushnir, Y., and Cane, M.A., 2009, Observed strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific ocean. Journal of Climate, 22, 4316-4321. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2936.1
  20. Kistler, R., Kalnay, E., Collins, W., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Kanamitsu, M., Kousky, V., Dool, H., Jenne, R., and Fiorino, M., 2001, The NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, 247-267. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0247:TNNYRM>2.3.CO;2
  21. Krishnamurthy, V. and Goswami, B.N., 2000, Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship on interdecadal timescale. Journal of Climate, 13, 579-595. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0579:IMEROI>2.0.CO;2
  22. Kumar, K.K., Rajagopalan, B., and Cane, M.A., 1999, On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science, 284, 2156-2159. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.284.5423.2156
  23. Lander, M.A. 1994, An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO. Monthly Weather Review, 122, 636-651. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0636:AEAOTR>2.0.CO;2
  24. Lu, R.Y., Dong, B.W., Cess, R.D., and Potter, G.L., 2004, The 1997/1998 El Niño: A test for climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L12216, doi:10.1029/2004GL019956
  25. Matsuura, T., Yumoto, M., and Iizuka, S., 2003, A mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 21, 105-117. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0327-3
  26. Meng, Q., Latif, M., Park, W., Keenlyside, N., Semenov, V., and Martin, T., 2012, Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: Data analysis and model experiments. Climate Dynamics, 38, 1757-1773, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1047-8.
  27. Nicholls, N., 1993, El Nino-Southern Oscillation and vector-borne disease. Lancet, 342, 1284-1285. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-6736(93)92368-4
  28. Nitta, T. and Yamada, S., 1989, Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 67, 187-193. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj1965.67.2_187
  29. Philander, S.G., 1990, El Nino, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press. New York, 293 pp.
  30. Phillips, J.G., Cane, M.A., and Rosenzweig, C., 1998, ENSO, seasonal rainfall patterns and simulated maize yield variability in Zimbabwe. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology, 90, 39-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(97)00095-6
  31. Power, S.B., Tseitkin, F., Torok, S., Lavery, B., and McAvaney, B., 1998, Australian temperature, Australian rainfall, and the Southern Oscillation, 1910-1996: Coherent variability and recent changes. Australian Meteorological Magazine, 47, 85-101.
  32. Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A., and Mehta, V., 1999, Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Climate Dynamics, 15, 319-324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050284
  33. Reynolds, R.W., Rayner, N.A., Smith, T.M., Stokes, D.C., and Wang, W., 2002, An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. Journal of Climate, 15, 1609-1625. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1609:AIISAS>2.0.CO;2
  34. Ropelewski, C.F. and Halpert, M.S., 1989, Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 2, 268-284. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<0268:PPAWTH>2.0.CO;2
  35. Sohn, B.J. and Park, S.C., 2010, Strengthened tropical circulations in past three decades inferred from water vapor transport. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D15112, doi: 10.1029/2009JD013713.
  36. Tanaka, H.L., Ishizaki, N., and Kitoh, A., 2004, Trend and interannual variability of Walker, monsoon and Hadley circulations defined by velocity potential in the upper troposphere. Tellus A, 56, 250-269. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2004.00049.x
  37. Vecchi, G. and Soden, B., 2007, Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. Journal of Climate, 20, 4316-4340. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4258.1
  38. Vecchi, G., Soden, B., Wittenberg, A., Held, I., Leetmaa, A., and Harrison, M., 2006, Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature, 441, 73-76, doi: 10.1038/nature04744.
  39. Velden, C.S., Leslie, L.M., 1991, The basic relationship between tropical cyclone intensity and the depth of the environmental steering layer in the Australian region. Weather and Forecasting, 6, 244-253. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1991)006<0244:TBRBTC>2.0.CO;2
  40. Wang, B. and Chan, J.C.L., 2002, How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. Journal of Climate, 15, 1643-1658. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1643:HSEEAT>2.0.CO;2
  41. Wang, H. and Mehta, V.M., 2008, Decadal variability of the Indo-Pacific warm pool and its association with atmospheric and oceanic variability in the NCEPNCAR and SODA reanalyses. Journal of Climate, 21, 5545-5565. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2049.1
  42. Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, 467 pp.
  43. Xie, P. and Arkin, P.A., 1997, Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 2539-2558. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2539:GPAYMA>2.0.CO;2
  44. Yumoto, M. and Matsuura, T., 2001, Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 79, 23-35. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.79.23
  45. Zhang, L., Wu, L., and Yu, L., 2011, Oceanic origin of a recent La Nina-like trend in the tropical Pacific. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 28, 1109-1117, doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0129-6.
  46. Zhang, M. and Song, H., 2006, Evidence of deceleration of atmospheric vertical overturning circulation over the tropical Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L12701, doi: 10.1029/2006GL025942.