Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
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Relationships between the Housing Market and Auction Market before and after Macroeconomic Fluctuations

거시경제변동 전후 주택시장과 경매시장 간의 관계성 분석

  • Lee, Young-Hoon (Department of Architectural Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kim, Jae-Jun (Department of Architectural Engineering, Hanyang University)
  • Received : 2016.02.04
  • Accepted : 2016.06.02
  • Published : 2016.06.30
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Abstract

It is known that the Real Estate Sales Market and Auction Market are closely interrelated with each other in a variety of respects and the media often mention the real estate auction market as a leading indicator of the real estate market. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationships between the housing market and auction market before and after macroeconomic fluctuations using VECM. The period from January 2002 to December 2008, which was before the financial crisis, was set as Model 1 and the period from January 2009 to November 2015, which was after the financial crisis, was set as Model 2. The results are as follows. First, the housing auction market is less sensitive to changes in the housing market than it is to fluctuations in the auction market. This means that changes in the auction market precede fluctuations in the housing market, which shows that the auction market as a trading market is activated. In this respect, public institutions need to realize the importance of the housing auction market and check trends in the housing contract price in the auction market. Also, investors need to ensure that they have expertise in the auction market.

일반적으로 부동산 매매시장과 경매시장 간에는 다양한 측면에서 긴밀한 연관관계가 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 또한 매체에서는 경매시장이 매매시장 경기를 선도하는 주요한 변수로 언급되었다. 본 논문에서는 서브프라임 금융위기 이전의 주택시장 활황기와 이후의 주택시장 침체기 각 시기별로 주택매매시장 및 주택전세시장과 주택경매시장 간의 관계를 벡터오차수정모형(VECM; Vector Error Correction Model)을 이용하여 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본 논문에서는 국내 대표적인 부동산시장이며, 시단위에서 가장 많은 경매물건이 거래되는 서울시의 아파트를 대상으로 연구를 진행하였다. 분석변수는 주택매매가격지수, 주택전세가격지수, 낙찰율, 낙찰가율을 활용하였다. 본 연구에서는 서브프라임 금융위기 발생 이전인 2002년 1월부터 2008년 12월까지를 Model 1로, 2009년 1월부터 최근 2015년 11월까지를 Model 2로 구분하여 비교분석하였다. 분석결과 경매시장의 경우 주택시장 변동에 상대적으로 덜 민감한 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 반대로, 경매시장 충격에는 주택시장이 유의미한 변동을 나타내는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는 경매시장 변화가 주택시장 변동에 선행하는 것을 의미하며 하나의 거래시장으로 경매시장이 활성화되고 있음을 나타낸다. 중앙정부에서는 경매시장의 중요성을 정확히 인지하고 가격변동추이를 면밀히 확인할 필요가 있다. 또한 투자주체들 역시 경매시장에 대한 전문성을 확보할 필요가 있다.

Keywords

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