한국농림기상학회지 (Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology)

  • 제18권2호
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  • Pages.65-73
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  • 2016
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  • 1229-5671(pISSN)
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  • 2288-1859(eISSN)
한국농림기상학회 (Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology)
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기후변화 시나리오에 따른 미래 참다래 궤양병 피해 예측

Impact of Climate Change on Yield Loss Caused by Bacterial Canker on Kiwifruit in Korea

  • 도기석 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 온난화대응농업연구소) ;
  • 정봉남 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 온난화대응농업연구소) ;
  • 최경산 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 온난화대응농업연구소) ;
  • 안정준 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 온난화대응농업연구소) ;
  • 좌재호 (농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 온난화대응농업연구소)
  • Do, Ki Seok (Research Institute of Climate Change and Agriculture, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Chung, Bong Nam (Research Institute of Climate Change and Agriculture, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Choi, Kyung San (Research Institute of Climate Change and Agriculture, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Ahn, Jeong Joon (Research Institute of Climate Change and Agriculture, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Rural Development Administration) ;
  • Joa, Jae Ho (Research Institute of Climate Change and Agriculture, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, Rural Development Administration)
  • 투고 : 2015.12.29
  • 심사 : 2016.06.17
  • 발행 : 2016.06.30
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초록

RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 미래 기후 변화 시나리오자료와 참다래 궤양병 피해 예측 모형인 D-PSA-K, 미래 참다래 재배적지 지도를 활용하여 궤양병의 미래 피해를 예측하고 참다래 궤양병의 발생 변화의 경향성을 찾아 보았다. 병원 세균에 의한 감염이 충분히 있다는 가정 아래에서 RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 시나리오의 2020년대와 2050년대에서 궤양병의 최대이병주율은 제주도와 남해안 일부 지역을 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 75% 이상으로 나타날 것으로 예측되었다. 두 시나리오들 모두에서 월동기 저온 환경이 없다는 가정 아래에서의 참다래 궤양병에 의한 가지 피해량은 거의 모든 재배가능지에서 증가될 것으로 예측된 반면에 월동기 저온에 의한 가지 피해량 증가율은 거의 모든 재배가능지에서 감소할 것으로 예측되었다. 지역 및 시나리오별로 궤양병 피해의 증가 및 감소의 경향은 다르게 나타날 것으로 예측되었다. RCP4.5 시나리오에서 2050년대에 2020년대에 비하여 10% 이상 최대 이병주율의 증가가 일어날 것으로 예측된 참다래 재배 가능지는 전체 재배 가능지의 3.14%, RCP8.5 시나리오에서는 25.41%였다.

We estimated the averaged maximum incidences of bacterial canker at suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s and 2050s using D-PSA-K model with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Though there was a little difference between the estimation using RCP4.5 and that using RCP8.5, the estimated maximum disease incidences were more than 75% at all the suitable sites in Korea except for some southern coastal areas and Jeju island under the assumption that there are a plenty of infections to cause the symptoms. We also analyzed the intermediate and final outputs of D-PSA-K model to find out the trends on the change in disease incidence affected by climate change. Whereas increase of damage to kiwifruit canes in a non-frozen environment caused by bacterial canker was estimated at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios, rate of necrosis increase caused by the bacterial canker pathogen in a frozen environment during the last overwintering season was predicted to be reduced at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios. Directions of change in estimated maximum incidence varied with sites and scenarios. Whereas the maximum disease incidence at 3.14% of suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to increase by 10% or more in 2050s, the maximum disease incidence at 25.41% of the suitable sites under RCP8.5 scenario was estimated so.

키워드

참고문헌

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