• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.54-66
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• 2020

This study was conducted to evaluate usefulness of numerical weather prediction data generated by the Unified Model (UM) for plant disease forecast. Using the UM06- and UM18-predicted weather data, which were released at 0600 and 1800 Universal Time Coordinated (UTC), respectively, by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), disease forecast on bacterial grain rot (BGR) of rice was examined as compared with the model output based on the automated weather stations (AWS)-observed weather data. We analyzed performance of BGRcast based on the UM-predicted and the AWS-observed daily minimum temperature and average relative humidity in 2014 and 2015 from 29 locations representing major rice growing areas in Korea using regression analysis and two-way contingency table analysis. Temporal changes in weather conduciveness at two locations in 2014 were also analyzed with regard to daily weather conduciveness (C_i) and the 20-day and 7-day moving averages of C_i for the inoculum build-up phase (C_inc) prior to the panicle emergence of rice plants and the infection phase (C_inf) during the heading stage of rice plants, respectively. Based on C_inc and C_inf, we were able to obtain the same disease warnings at all locations regardless of the sources of weather data. In conclusion, the numerical weather prediction data from KMA could be reliable to apply as input data for plant disease forecast models. Weather prediction data would facilitate applications of weather-driven disease models for better disease management. Crop growers would have better options for disease control including both protective and curative measures when weather prediction data are used for disease warning.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.46-51
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• 2008

With the goal of achieving better integrated pest management for hot pepper, a disease-forecasting system was compared to a conventional disease-control method. Experimental field plots were established at Asan, Chungnam, in 2005 to 2006, and hourly temperature and leaf wetness were measured and used as model inputs. One treatment group received applications of a protective fungicide, dithianon, every 7 days, whereas another received a curative fungicide, dimethomorph, when the model-determined infection risk (IR) exceeded a value of 3. In the unsprayed plot, fruits showed 18.9% (2005) and 14.0% (2006) anthracnose infection. Fruits sprayed with dithianon at 7-day intervals had 4.7% (2005) and 15.4% (2006) infection. The receiving model-advised sprays of dimethomorph had 9.4% (2005) and 10.9% (2006) anthracnose infection. Differences in the anthracnose levels between the conventional and model-advised treatments were not statistically significant. The efficacy of 10 (2005) and 8 (2006) applications of calendar-based sprays was same as that of three (2005 and 2006) sprays based on the disease-forecast system. In addition, we found much higher the IRs with the leaf wetness sensor from the field plots comparing without leaf wetness sensor from the weather station at Asan within 10km away. Since the wetness-periods were critical to forecast anthracnose in the model, the measurement of wetness-period in commercial fields must be refined to improve the anthracnose-forecast model.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.350-362
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• 2015

A disease forecast model for bacterial grain rot (BGR) of rice, which is caused by Burkholderia glumae, was developed in this study. The model, which was named 'BGRcast', determined daily conduciveness of weather conditions to epidemic development of BGR and forecasted risk of BGR development. All data that were used to develop and validate the BGRcast model were collected from field observations on disease incidence at Naju, Korea during 1998-2004 and 2010. In this study, we have proposed the environmental conduciveness as a measure of conduciveness of weather conditions for population growth of B. glumae and panicle infection in the field. The BGRcast calculated daily environmental conduciveness, $C_i$, based on daily minimum temperature and daily average relative humidity. With regard to the developmental stages of rice plants, the epidemic development of BGR was divided into three phases, i.e., lag, inoculum build-up and infection phases. Daily average of $C_i$ was calculated for the inoculum build-up phase ($C_{inf}$) and the infection phase ($C_{inc}$). The $C_{inc}$ and $C_{inf}$ were considered environmental conduciveness for the periods of inoculum build-up in association with rice plants and panicle infection during the heading stage, respectively. The BGRcast model was able to forecast actual occurrence of BGR at the probability of 71.4% and its false alarm ratio was 47.6%. With the thresholds of $C_{inc}=0.3$ and $C_{inf}=0.5$, the model was able to provide advisories that could be used to make decisions on whether to spray bactericide at the preand post-heading stage.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.172-184
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• 2012

An infection risk model for Phytophthora blight on chili pepper was developed to estimate the first date of disease occurrence in the field. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of zoosporangium formation, soil water content, and amount of active inoculum in soil. Daily weather data on air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, and the soil texture data of local areas were used to estimate infection risk level that was quantified as the accumulated amount of active inoculum during the prior three days. Based on the analysis on 190 sets of weather and disease data, it was found that the threshold infection risk of 224 could be an appropriate criterion for determining the primary infection date. The 95% confidence interval for the difference between the estimated date of primary infection and the observed date of first disease occurrence was $8{\pm}3$ days. In the model validation tests, the observed dates of first disease occurrence were within the 95% confidence intervals of the estimated dates in the five out of six cases. The sensitivity analyses suggested that the model was more responsive to temperature and soil texture than relative humidity, rainfall, and transplanting date. The infection risk model could be implemented in practice to control Phytophthora blight in chili pepper fields.

• Research in Plant Disease
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.168-177
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• 2016

A forecast model for estimating the infection risk of bacterial canker caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae on kiwifruit leaves in Korea was developed using the generic infection model of Magarey et al. (2005). Two-way contingency table analysis was carried out to evaluate accuracy of forecast models including the model developed in this study for estimating the infection of bacterial canker on kiwifruit using the weather and disease data collected from three kiwifruit orchards at Seogwipo in 2015. All the tested models had more than 80% of probability of detection indicating that all the tested models could be effective to manage the disease. The model developed in this study showed the highest values in proportion of correct (51.1%), probability of detection (90.9%), and critical success index (47.6%). It indicated that the model developed in this study would be the best model for estimating the infection of bacterial wilt on kiwifruit leaves in Korea. The model developed in this study could be used for a part of decision support system for managing bacterial wilt on kiwifruit leaves and help growers to reduce the loss caused by the disease in Korea.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.585-597
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• 2019

A disease forecast model for Marssonina blotch of apple was developed based on field observations on airborne spore catches, weather conditions, and disease incidence in 2013 and 2015. The model consisted of the airborne spore model (ASM) and the daily infection rate model (IRM). It was found that more than 80% of airborne spore catches for the experiment period was made during the spore liberation period (SLP), which is the period of days of a rain event plus the following 2 days. Of 13 rain-related weather variables, number of rainy days with rainfall ≥ 0.5 mm per day (L_day), maximum hourly rainfall (P_max) and average daily maximum wind speed (W_avg) during a rain event were most appropriate in describing variations in airborne spore catches during SLP (S_i) in 2013. The ASM, Ŝ_i = 30.280+5.860×L_day×P_max-2.123×L_day×P_max×W_avg was statistically significant and capable of predicting the amount of airborne spore catches during SLP in 2015. Assuming that airborne conidia liberated during SLP cause leaf infections resulting in symptom appearance after 21 days of incubation period, there was highly significant correlation between the estimated amount of airborne spore catches (Ŝ_i) and the daily infection rate (R_i). The IRM, ${\hat{R}}_i$ = 0.039+0.041×Ŝ_i, was statistically significant but was not able to predict the daily infection rate in 2015. No weather variables showed statistical significance in explaining variations of the daily infection rate in 2013.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.406-417
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• 2020

Early warning services for crop diseases are valuable when they provide timely forecasts that farmers can utilize to inform their disease management decisions. In South Korea, collaborative disease controls that utilize unmanned aerial vehicles are commonly performed for most rice paddies. However, such controls could benefit from seasonal disease early warnings with a lead time of a few months. As a first step to establish a seasonal disease early warning service using seasonal climate forecasts, we developed the EPIRICE Daily Risk Model for rice blast by extracting and modifying the core infection algorithms of the EPIRICE model. The daily risk scores generated by the EPIRICE Daily Risk Model were successfully converted into a realistic and measurable disease value through statistical analyses with 13 rice blast incidence datasets, and subsequently validated using the data from another rice blast experiment conducted in Icheon, South Korea, from 1974 to 2000. The sensitivity of the model to air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation input variables was examined, and the relative humidity resulted in the most sensitive response from the model. Overall, our results indicate that the EPIRICE Daily Risk Model can be used to produce potential disease risk predictions for the seasonal disease early warning service.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.26-44
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• 2003

This study Is to forecast the damage of smallpox as a biological weapon and to measure the effect of potential responses (quarantine, vaccination and cure) to the spread of smallpox infection when a smallpox bioterrorism attack occurs. We designed the smallpox spreading simulation model through the literature study on a basis of some existing infectious disease models such as SIR, SEIR model by using Vensim program. In order to evaluate the performance of responses to smallpox, we measure the total infection population, infection sustaining duration, average infection rate and the infection spreading behavior of the smallpox. This study can help those who are related to the bioterrorism forecast the present and possible demage, and take more effective actions for minimizing the damage by smallpox bioterrorism.

• Research in Plant Disease
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.229-238
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• 2020

Field validation of PBcast, an infection risk model for Phytophthora blight of pepper, was conducted through a designed field experiment in 2012 and 2013. Conduciveness of weather conditions at 26 locations in Korea in 2014-2017 was also evaluated using PBcast. The PBcast estimated daily infection risk (IR) of Phytophthora capsici based on weather and soil texture data. In the designed filed experiment, four treatments including routine sprays at 7-day intervals (RTN7), forecast-based sprays when IR reached 200 (IR200) and 224 (IR224), and no spray (CTRL) were compared in terms of disease incidence and number of sprays recommended for disease control. In 2012, IR had reached over 200 twice, but never reached 224. In 2013, IR had reached over 200 three times and once higher than 224. The RTN7 plots were sprayed 17 and 18 times in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Weather conditions throughout the country were generally conducive for Phytophthora blight and 3-4 times of fungicide sprays would have been reduced if the PBcast forecast information was adopted in the decision-making for fungicide sprays. In conclusion, the PBcast forecast would be useful to reduce fungicide applications without losing the disease control efficacy to protect pepper crop from Phytophthora blight.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.59-60
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• 2017