상하수도학회지 (Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater)

  • 제30권2호
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  • Pages.155-165
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  • 2016
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  • 1225-7672(pISSN)
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  • 2287-822X(eISSN)
대한상하수도학회 (The Korean Society of Water and Wastewater)
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퍼지기법을 이용한 상수관로의 노후도예측 모델 연구

Deterioration Prediction Model of Water Pipes Using Fuzzy Techniques

  • Choi, Taeho (K-water Research Institute, Korea Water Resources Corporation) ;
  • Choi, Min-ah (K-water Research Institute, Korea Water Resources Corporation) ;
  • Lee, Hyundong (Environmental Engineering Research Division, Korea Institute of Construction Technology(KICT) and Department of Construction and Environment Engineering, University of Science and Technology(UST)) ;
  • Koo, Jayong (Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Seoul)
  • 투고 : 2015.11.24
  • 심사 : 2016.03.11
  • 발행 : 2016.04.15
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초록

Pipe Deterioration Prediction (PDP) and Pipe Failure Risk Prediction (PFRP) models were developed in an attempt to predict the deterioration and failure risk in water mains using fuzzy technique and the markov process. These two models were used to determine the priority in repair and replacement, by predicting the deterioration degree, deterioration rate, failure possibility and remaining life in a study sample comprising 32 water mains. From an analysis approach based on conservative risk with a medium policy risk, the remaining life for 30 of the 32 water mains was less than 5 years for 2 mains (7%), 5-10 years for 8 (27%), 10-15 years for 7 (23%), 15-20 years for 5 (17%), 20-25 years for 5 (17%), and 25 years or more for 2 (7%).

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참고문헌

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