Journal of the Korean earth science society (한국지구과학회지)

The Korean Earth Science Society (한국지구과학회)
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An Analysis of the Sensitivity of Input Parameters for the Seismic Hazard Analysis in the Korean Peninsula

한반도 지진위험도 산출을 위한 입력 파라메타의 민감도 분석

  • Kim, Min-Ju (Department of Earth Science Education, Korea National University of Education) ;
  • Kyung, Jai-Bok (Department of Earth Science Education, Korea National University of Education)
  • 김민주 (한국교원대학교 지구과학교육과) ;
  • 경재복 (한국교원대학교 지구과학교육과)
  • Received : 2015.07.21
  • Accepted : 2015.08.25
  • Published : 2015.08.30
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Abstract

This study is to analyze the sensitivity for the parameters (a and b values, $M_{max}$, attenuation formula, and seismo-tectonic model) which are essential for the seismic hazard map. The values of each parameter were suggested by 10 members of the expert group. The results show that PGA increases as a value and $M_{max}$ become larger and as b value smaller. Big impact on the seismic hazard is observed for attenuation formula, a and b values although there is little impact on $M_{max}$ and seismo-tectonic model. These parameters with big impact require careful consideration for obtaining adequate values that well reflects the seismic characteristics of the Korean peninsula.

본 연구는 지진위험도 산출에서 불확실성을 줄이는 한 방법으로서 지진위험도 계산에 입력되는 파라미터들(a, b값, $M_{max}$, 감쇠식 및 지진지체구조)이 지진위험도 값에 어느 정도로 영향을 미치는지 민감도를 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 지진 전문가 10명이 제시한 입력자료를 사용하였다. 그 결과 a값, $M_{max}$값이 커질수록 PGA값이 증가하였으며, b값은 작아질수록 PGA값이 커졌다. 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 파라메타는 감쇄식, b값 및 a값이며, $M_{max}$와 지진지체구조구 모델의 영향은 상당히 적었다. 따라서 영향이 큰 파라메타에 대해서는 한반도의 지진학적 특성에 적합한 값의 산출이 요구된다.

Keywords

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  1. An Analysis of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard in the Korean Peninsula vol.37, pp.1, 2016, https://doi.org/10.5467/JKESS.2016.37.1.52