DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

국민연금의 수급부담구조분석과 지속가능성

Benefit-Cost Analysis and Sustainability of National Pension

  • 투고 : 2015.06.29
  • 심사 : 2015.07.10
  • 발행 : 2015.08.31

초록

국민연금은 각종 사회적 위험으로부터 국민을 보호하고 빈곤을 해소하는 대표적인 사회보장제도로, 노령인구의 삶의 질에 큰 영향을 미치고 있다. 그러나 급속도로 진행되고 있는 고령화와 출산율의 감소는 국민연금의 지속가능성을 위협하고 있다. 국민연금의 지속가능성을 점검하고 유지하기 위해 국민연금연구원에서는 5년마다 재정추계를 실시하고 있으며, 정부에서는 이를 바탕으로 국민연금의 지속가능성을 높이기 위해 수급액을 낮추고 있다. 하지만 OECD 국가 중 노인 빈곤율이 가장 높다는 현실을 고려할 때, 단순히 수급액을 낮추는 현재의 국민연금 제도 변화는 국민연금의 노후소득보장 기능을 훼손할 우려가 높다. 본 논문에서는 먼저 국민연금 재정추계에 대한 방법론을 인구, 가입자, 수급자 추계의 측면에서 논의하고 적립금 추계와 재정고갈연도를 점검할 것이다. 그리고 인구변수, 제도변수, 그리고 경제변수가 국민연금 적립금과 재정고갈연도에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위해 민감도 분석을 할 것이며, 국민연금의 수급부담구조를 분석하여 세대내, 세대간, 소득계층간 공정성을 평가하도록 한다. 마지막으로 국민연금의 지속가능성을 연금 기여율과 수급률(소득대체율)의 관점에서 점검하며, 본 논문에서 새롭게 정의한 부양비(modied dependency ratio)지수를 통해, 부과식 제도의 도입이 없이 단순하게 기여율과 수급률의 조정으로는 국민연금의 개혁이 불가능하다는 것을 보여줄 것이다.

The National Pension of Korea is a public social security system designed to alleviate social risks and poverty that has had a major impact on the quality of life for the aging population. However, a rapidly aging population and low fertility threaten the sustainability of national pension in Korea. The National Pension Research Institute publishes a nancial projection every ve years; consequently, the government has lowered the entitlements for the sustainability of national pension based on the projection results. The current reform of the pension system that arbitrarily reduces the entitlements might detract from the income security role of the national pension for pensioners without accounting for the highest elderly poverty rate in the OECD countries. We first discuss methods for the financial projection of the national pension in terms of population, subscribers, and pensioner projections in order to estimate the pension reserve fund and the financial depletion year. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis for population variables, institutional variables, and economic variables based on pension reserves and the financial depletion year. We evaluate intergenerational fairness between the income hierarchy by conducting a money's worth analysis. Finally, we investigate the possibility of the sustainability of national pension by adjusting pension contributions and entitlements (income replacement rate). A new dependency ratio shows that a simple reform of the national pension does not secure the sustainability of the national pension without adapting a pay-as-you-go system.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Committee for National Pension Projection (2013). 2013 National Pension Long-term Projection, National Pension Service.
  2. Jeon, S., Kim, S. and Park, Y. (2012). Quality evaluation for census and vital statistics of Korea using demographic analysis, The Korean Association for Survey Research, 13, 1-31.
  3. Kim, S., Kim, K. W. and Park, Y. (2011). An extension of mortality for oldest-old age in Korea, The Korean Association for Survey Research, 12, 1-26.
  4. Kim, S. O. and Shin, S. H. (2010). Life Income Estimation Methods for Pension Projection, National Pension Research Institute, Research Report, 2010-05.
  5. Kim, S. O. and Shin, S. H. (2011). Projection for National Pension Income and Payment for New Pensioner, National Pension Research Institute, Research Report, 2011-05.
  6. Lee, R. D. and Carter, L. R. (1992). Modelling and forecasting U.S. mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 659-671.
  7. Leimer, D. R. (1995). A guide to social security money's worth issues, Social Security Bulletin, 58, 3-20.
  8. Li, N. and Lee, R. (2005). Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter method, Demography, 42, 575-594. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0021
  9. Ministry of Health & Welfare (2009). Manual for Public Pension Linked System, Ministry of Health & Welfare.
  10. Ministry of Strategy and Finance (2014). Assumption for Common Guideline for Projection(National Finance Act 7), Ministry of Strategy and Finance.
  11. National Pension Service (2011). 2010 National Pension Statistical Yearbook, National Pension Service.
  12. National Pension Service (2014). 2013 National Pension Statistical Yearbook, National Pension Statistical Yearbook.
  13. OECD (2013). Pensions at a Glance 2013, OECD.
  14. Park, S. M., Shin, K. H., Park, M. W. and Han, J. R. (2010). Mid-Term National Pension Projection (2011-2015), National Pension Research Institute, Research Report, 2010-02
  15. Park, Y., Jeon, S., Kim, S. and Kim, S. (2012). On the reliability of a national pension projection, The Korean Association for Survey Research, 13, 129-154.
  16. Park, Y., Jang, S. and Kim, S. (2013a). VECM-LC model for forecasting mortality of Korea, The Korean Association for Survey Research, 14, 19-47.
  17. Park, Y., Kim, M. and Kim, S. (2013b). Probabilistic fertility models and the future population structure of Korea, The Korean Association for Survey Research, 14, 49-78.
  18. Statistical Training Institute (2008). Introduction of Demographical Statistics and its Application, Statistical Training Institute, 2008-5.
  19. Team for National Pension Projection (2012). Models for National Pension Projection 2011, National Pension Research Institute. Research Report, 2012-01.