Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Analysis on Characteristics of Orographic Effect about the Rainfall Using Radar Data: A Case Study on Chungju Dam Basin

레이더 자료를 이용한 호우의 산지효과 특성 분석: 충주댐 유역을 대상으로

  • Ku, Jung Mo (School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Ro, Yonghun (School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Kim, Kyoungjun (DSI Center, National Disaster Management Institute) ;
  • Yoo, Chulsang (School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering, Korea University)
  • 구정모 (고려대학교 대학원 건축사회환경공학부) ;
  • 노용훈 (고려대학교 대학원 건축사회환경공학부) ;
  • 김경준 (국립재난안전연구원 재난원인조사실 DSI센터) ;
  • 유철상 (고려대학교 공과대학 건축사회환경공학부)
  • Received : 2014.12.12
  • Accepted : 2015.04.06
  • Published : 2015.05.31
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Abstract

This study analyzed the characteristics of orographic effect using radar data for the Chungju dam basin. First, independent rainfall events were selected by applying the IETD (Interevent Time Definition) and rainfall threshold. Among those independent rainfall events, rather strong events were selected to decide the occurrence condition of orographic effect. Also, the average reflectivity was calculated for the entire period and for the period of storm center, and the change in reflectivity was analyzed by comparing the average reflectivity to that in the mountain area. Important rainfall factors were selected and applied to the logistic regression model to decide the occurrence condition of orographic effect. Summarizing the results is as follows. First, evaluation of the radar data along the passing line of a storm showed the increase of radar reflectivity in the mountain area. Second, the result of logistic regression analysis showed that the orographic effect in the Chungju Dam Basin mostly occurred when the rainfall intensity was higher than 4 mm/hr, the storm velocity was lower than 4 km/hr, and the approach angle was $90^{\circ}{\pm}5^{\circ}$.

본 연구에서는 충주댐 유역을 대상으로 레이더 자료를 이용하여 호우의 산지효과 특성을 분석하였다. 먼저 적절한 무강우 기간과 절단값을 결정하여 독립호우사상을 선정하였다. 이러한 독립호우사상으로부터 산지효과의 발현 여부를 판단할 주요호우사상을 선정하였다. 또 레이더 자료를 이용하여 전체 기간과 호우중심 기간의 평균반사도를 산정하고, 산지 부근의 반사도와 평균반사도를 비교하여 반사도의 변화를 분석하였다. 아울러 본 연구에서는 호우의 특성인자를 선정하고 로지스틱 회귀분석을 수행하여 충주댐 유역 호우의 산지효과 발현 조건을 확인하였다. 그 결과를 정리하면 다음과 같다. 먼저 산악 지역을 통과하는 호우의 이동선상에서의 반사도 변화를 검토한 결과 호우의 시작 지점에 비하여 산악 지역에서의 반사도가 증가한 것으로 확인되었다. 둘째, 산지효과 발현 조건을 탐색하기 위해 로지스틱 회귀분석을 수행한 결과 충주댐 유역에서는 임계값이 호우의 이동속도 4km/hr, 접근각도 $90^{\circ}{\pm}5^{\circ}$, 강우강도 4mm/hr인 경우에 산지효과의 발현 여부 적중률이 가장 높은 것으로 확인되었다.

Keywords

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