Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회논문지)

The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society (한국산학기술학회)
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Outlook of the timber supply to the wood industry buildup master plan

목재산업진흥 종합계획에 따른 목재공급 전망

  • Lee, Sang-Min (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Kim, Kyeong-Duk (Department of Agricultural Development Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
  • 이상민 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부) ;
  • 김경덕 (한국농촌경제연구원 농업발전연구부)
  • Received : 2014.09.02
  • Accepted : 2015.03.12
  • Published : 2015.03.31
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Abstract

This study assessed the long term structure of forest age groups and the possibility of a domestic wood supply based on the wood industry buildup master plan. Wood is assumed to be supplied by main cutting, renewal, cutting damaged trees and thinning. The cohort equation was applied to identify the dynamic changes in forest area according to the age groups. The sixth age group, which composed of only 7.7% in 2010, is expected to comprise 73% of the total production land. The area distributions of the other age groups are expected to be between 5.3 - 5.6%. Consequently, the production volume from main cutting accounts for approximately 93 - 95% of the total production. The production volume from thinning, which depends on the area of the second and third age groups, will be decreased gradually. When the volume of domestic timber supply was compared with the timber demand from a previous study, the self-sufficiency of timber demand will be approximately 83% in 2050.

이 연구는 정부의 목재산업진흥 종합계획에 기초하여 장기적인 산림의 영급구조 변화와 국내재 공급 가능성에 대해 살펴보았다. 목재는 주벌과 수종갱신, 피해지 벌채, 솎아베기 등을 통하여서만 공급된다고 가정하였다. 영급별 면적의 동태적인 변화를 추정하기 위하여 코호트 관계식을 이용하였다. 2010년 전체 시업지의 7.7%에 불과하던 6영급 면적이 크게 증가하여 2100년에는 약 73% 정도를 차지할 것으로 분석되었다. 반면 다른 영급의 면적은 5.3~5.6%의 분포를 나타낼 것으로 전망된다. 목재공급에 있어서는 주벌에 의한 생산이 93~95%를 차지할 것으로 예상된다. 2영급과 3영급의 면적에 좌우되는 솎아베기 생산량은 면적의 감소와 함께 점진적으로 줄어들 것으로 예상된다. 국내재 예상 공급을 선행연구 결과로 제시된 국내재 예상 수요와 비교하여 자급률을 계산한 결과 2050년에 83% 정도 될 것으로 예상된다.

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References

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