초록
This study aims to forecast of the number of smart phone addicted youths and to evaluate the effect of rehabilitation programs. A system dynamics model is developed to describe the processes of addiction and transits between phases as well as the diffusion of smart phones. The youths are grouped into non users, general users, potential risky users, and high risky users. The model utilizes the population distributions over ages for the next 30 years forecasted by Korean Government. The number of youths decreases for the next decade or so, and the number of youths who owns smart phone will reach maximum at 2017. As for the rehabilitation programs, the model includes the preventive education for general users, counseling for potential risky users, and professional therapy for high risky users. The preventive education restricts the transit from general users to potential risky users. Counseling increases the transit from potential risky users to general users while it decreases the transit to high risky users. Professional therapy improves transit to potential risky users and to general users. Although the model cannot be validated the accuracy owing to the lack of data, it describes these transit within the reasonable ranges and can be used to study the allocation of the limited resources to maximize the outcome.