경영과학 (Korean Management Science Review)

한국경영과학회 (The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society)
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그룹 가치스코어 모형을 활용한 강수확률예보의 사용자 만족도 효용 분석

Analysis of Users' Satisfaction Utility for Precipitation Probabilistic Forecast Using Collective Value Score

  • 윤승철 (단국대학교 상경대학 경영학부) ;
  • 이기광 (단국대학교 상경대학 경영학부)
  • 투고 : 2015.10.17
  • 심사 : 2015.12.04
  • 발행 : 2015.12.31
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초록

This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate the economic value of weather forecast service, among which the precipitation forecast service is focused. The value is calculated in terms of users' satisfaction or dissatisfaction resulted from the users' decisions made by using the precipitation probabilistic forecasts and thresholds. The satisfaction values can be quantified by the traditional value score model, which shows the scaled utility values relative to the perfect forecast information. This paper extends the value score concept to a collective value score model which is defined as a weighted sum of users' satisfaction based on threshold distribution in a group of the users. The proposed collective value score model is applied to the picnic scenario by using four hypothetical sets of probabilistic forecasts, i.e., under-confident, over-confident, under-forecast and over-forecast. The application results show that under-confident type of forecasts outperforms the others as a measure of the maximum collective value regardless of users' dissatisfaction patterns caused by two types of forecast errors, e.g., miss and false alarm.

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참고문헌

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