• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.97-108
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• 2015

This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate the economic value of weather forecast service, among which the precipitation forecast service is focused. The value is calculated in terms of users' satisfaction or dissatisfaction resulted from the users' decisions made by using the precipitation probabilistic forecasts and thresholds. The satisfaction values can be quantified by the traditional value score model, which shows the scaled utility values relative to the perfect forecast information. This paper extends the value score concept to a collective value score model which is defined as a weighted sum of users' satisfaction based on threshold distribution in a group of the users. The proposed collective value score model is applied to the picnic scenario by using four hypothetical sets of probabilistic forecasts, i.e., under-confident, over-confident, under-forecast and over-forecast. The application results show that under-confident type of forecasts outperforms the others as a measure of the maximum collective value regardless of users' dissatisfaction patterns caused by two types of forecast errors, e.g., miss and false alarm.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.27.1-27.1
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• 2008

KASI (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) is developing a compact wide-field survey space telescope system, MIRIS (The Multi-purpose IR Imaging System) to be launched in 2010 as the main payload of the Korea Science and Technology Satellite 3. Through recent System Design Review (SDR) and Preliminary Design Review (PDR), most of the system design concept was reviewed and confirmed. The near IR imaging system adopted short F/2 optics for wide field low resolution observation at wavelength band 0.9~2.0 um minimizing the effect of attitude control system. The mechanical system is composed of a cover, baffle, optics, and detector system using a $256\times256$ Teledyne PICNIC FPA providing a $3.67\times3.67$ degree field of view with a pixel scale of 51.6 arcsec. We designed a support system to minimize heat transfer with Muti-Layer Insulation. The electronics of the MIRIS system is composed of 7 boards including DSP, control, SCIF. Particular attention is being paid to develop mission operation scenario for space observation to minimize IR background radiation from the Earth and Sun. The scientific purpose of MIRIS is to survey the Galactic plane in the emission line of Pa$\alpha$ ($1.88{\mu}m$) and to detect the cosmic infrared background (CIB) radiation. The CIB is being suspected to be originated from the first generation stars of the Universe and we will test this hypothesis by comparing the fluctuations in I (0.9~1.2 um) and H (1.2~2.0 um) bands to search the red shifted Lyman cutoff signature.