Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Hydrological Assessment of Multifractal Space-Time Rainfall Downscaling Model: Focusing on Application to the Upstream Watershed of Chungju Dam

멀티프랙탈 시·공간 격자강우량 생산기법의 수문학적 적용성 평가 : 충주댐상류유역 중심으로

  • Song, Ho Yong (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University) ;
  • Kim, Dong-Kyun (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Hongik University) ;
  • Kim, Byung-Sik (Dept. of Urban & Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering School of Fire & Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Hwang, Seok-Hwan (Division of Water Resources Research in Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong
  • 송호용 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 김동균 (홍익대학교 건설도시공학부) ;
  • 김병식 (국립강원대학교 소방방재학부 & 방재전문대학원) ;
  • 황석환 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원환경본부) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 공학대학 건설환경플랜트공학과)
  • Received : 2014.08.17
  • Accepted : 2014.09.25
  • Published : 2014.10.31
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Abstract

In this study, a space-time rainfall grid field generation model based on multifractal theory was verified using nine flood events in the upstream watershed of Chungju dam in South Korea. For this purpose, KMA radar rainfall data sets were analyzed for the space-time multifractal characteristics. Simulated rainfall fields that represent the multifractal characteristics of observed rainfall field were reproduced using the space-time rainfall grid field generation model with log-Poisson distribution and three-dimension wavelet function. Simulated rainfall fields were applied to the S-RAT model as input data and compared with both observed rainfall fields and low-resolution rainfall field runoff. Error analyses using RMSE, RRMSE, MAE, SS, NPE and PTE indicated that the peak discharge increases about 20.03% and the time to peak decreases about 0.81%.

본 연구에서는 멀티프랙탈 이론을 기반으로 시 공간 격자강우장 생산 모형을 충주댐 상류유역에 발생한 9개의 홍수 사상에 대하여 검증하였다. 이를 위하여 기상청의 레이더 강우자료에 대한 시공간 멀티프랙탈 특성을 분석하였으며, 로그 포아송 분포와 3차원 웨이브렛 함수 기반의 시 공간 격자 강우생산 모형을 활용하여 관측강우의 멀티프랙탈 특성을 재현하는시 공간 가상강우장을 생산하였다. 생성된 가상강우장을 S-RAT 분포형 수문모형에 입력값으로 적용하여 유역출구에서의 반응을 관측강우 및 시공간적으로 균등한 분포를 가진강우장에 대하여 산출된 유역출구에서의 반응과 비교하였다. 관측 강우장과 가상강우장, 관측강우장과 저해상도 강우장에 대하여 RMSE, RRMSE, MAE, SS, 그리고 NPE, PTE 등을 이용하여 오차분석을 수행한 결과, 평균적으로 첨두홍수량은 20.03% 증가하였고, 첨두시간은 0.81% 감소하였다.

Keywords

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