디지털융복합연구 (Journal of Digital Convergence)

  • 제12권9호
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  • Pages.111-121
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  • 2014
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  • 2713-6434(pISSN)
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  • 2713-6442(eISSN)
한국디지털정책학회 (The Society of Digital Policy and Management)
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계량적 통계분석을 통한 매체별 광고비 예측 연구

A Study on the prediction of Advertising Expenditure

  • 한상필 (한양대학교 광고홍보학부) ;
  • 유승엽 (남서울대학교 광고홍보학과)
  • Han, Sangpil (Department of Advertising and PR, Hanyang University) ;
  • Yu, Seung Yeob (Department of Advertising and PR, Namseoul University)
  • 투고 : 2014.07.11
  • 심사 : 2014.09.20
  • 발행 : 2014.09.28
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초록

본 연구는 지난 20여년 간의 시계열 광고비 자료를 근거로 향후 5년 간 우리나라의 연도별 총 광고비와 6대 광고매체의 광고비를 계량적 통계 분석을 통하여 예측해 보고자 하였다. 제일기획에서 발간한 광고연감 자료를 사용하여 계량적 분석을 통해 추정한 결과, 2018년 우리나라의 총 광고비는 10조 8730억원을 기록할 것으로 전망되었다. 6대 매체별 광고비는 단순회귀법, 지수평활법, SUR회귀법 등 3가지 방법으로 예측하였다. 연구결과를 바탕으로 광고학계와 광고실무계에 어떤 시사점이 있는 가를 논의하였다는 점에서 연구의 가치가 있다고 하겠다.

This study is designed to predict the total ad expenditure of Korea, and six media ad expenditures in 5 years based on the past 20 years ad expenditure date. We use annual data published by Cheil Worldwide advertising data analysis. Time series, SUR method, exponential smoothing method and regression analysis were used for exploring the data. The results showed that the total advertising expenditure in 2018 is predicted to 10,873 billion wons. On the basis of the findings, implications are discussed for academicians as well as practitioners.

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참고문헌

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