Qualitative Risk Factor Analysis of Overseas LNG Plant in Operation and Management Phases

해외 LNG 플랜트 운영관리단계의 정성적 위험요인 분석

The purpose of this study is to analyze qualitative risk factors that are considered in operation and management phases of overseas LNG plant. For this purpose, the study investigated risk factors of similar projects. Based on these results, risk factors of overseas LNG plant are derived and qualitative risk factors are classified from interview with experts. Qualitative risk factors that have been classified, are analyzed priority and relative importance by using AHP method. The results of this study according to purpose and method are as follows: 1)Forty-two risk factors, from 125 risk factors of similar projects being investigated, on LNG plant operation and management phases were derived. Risk factors were separated by transportation, sales, maintenance and management, and then 20 qualitative risk factors were derived by survey of experts. The results of relative importance analysis by using AHP method based on qualitative risk factors are as follows: Relative importance of "LNG production which does not meet quality contract(M-12)" was analyzed as the most highly risky factor. "Cancel a license contract of core technology(M-07)", "Insufficient review of local relevant laws(M-08)", "Occurred defects of equipment due to insufficient design(R-08)" have been analyzed in order of importance.