Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Analysis on the Variability of Rainfall at the Seoul Station during Summer Season Using the Variability of Parameters of a Stochastic Rainfall Generation Model

추계학적 강우모형의 매개변수 변동을 통한 서울지역 여름철 강우 변동특성 분석

  • Cho, Hyungon (Dept. of Arch. and Civil Eng., Kyungpook National Univ.) ;
  • Kim, Gwangseob (Dept. of Arch. and Civil Eng., Kyungpook National Univ.) ;
  • Yi, Jaeeung (Div. of Env. Civil & Transportation Eng., Ajou Univ.)
  • 조현곤 (경북대학교 건축.토목공학부) ;
  • 김광섭 (경북대학교 건축.토목공학부) ;
  • 이재응 (아주대학교 환경건설교통공학부)
  • Received : 2014.07.07
  • Accepted : 2014.07.12
  • Published : 2014.08.31
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Abstract

In this study a stochastic rainfall generation model is used to analyze the structural variability of rainfall events since it has limitations in the traditional approach of measuring rainfall variability according to different durations. The NSRPM(Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model) is a stochastic rainfall generation model using a point process with 5 model parameters which is widely used in hydrologic fields. The five model parameters have physical meaning associated with rainfall events. The model parameters were estimated using hourly rainfall data from 1973 to 2011 at Seoul stations. The variability of model parameter estimates was analyzed and compared with results of traditional analysis.

본 연구에서는 강우의 변동특성 분석에 있어 기존의 접근법인 지속기간별 강우량의 변화 분석을 통하여 얻는 데 한계가 있는 강우의 구조적 변동특성을 분석하기 위하여 추계학적 강우모형을 이용하였다. Neyman-Scott 구형펄스 모형(Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model, NSRPM)은 점 과정을 이용한 추계학적 강우생성 모형으로 시간단위 강우를 생성함으로써 수문학 분야에서 널리 쓰이고 있으며 강우특성과 관련한 5개의 매개변수로 구성되어있다. 각 매개변수는 물리적인 의미를 가지고 있으므로 서울지점의 1973~2011년 여름철 시강우자료를 이용하여 NSRPM의 매개변수를 추정하고 추정된 매개변수의 변화를 분석하여 강우의 구조적인 변화를 분석하고 기존연구와 비교 분석하였다.

Keywords

References

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