Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers (조명전기설비학회논문지)

The Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers (한국조명전기설비학회)
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Weekly Maximum Electric Load Forecasting for 104 Weeks by Seasonal ARIMA Model

계절 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 104주 주간 최대 전력수요예측

  • 김시연 (숭실대학교 전기공학과) ;
  • 정현우 (숭실대학교 전기공학과) ;
  • 박정도 (위덕대학교 에너지전기공학부) ;
  • 백승묵 (공주대학교 전기전자제어공학부) ;
  • 김우선 (전력거래소 수요예측실) ;
  • 전경희 (전력거래소 수요예측실) ;
  • 송경빈 (숭실대학교 전기공학부)
  • Received : 2013.10.07
  • Accepted : 2013.11.21
  • Published : 2014.01.31
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Abstract

Accurate midterm load forecasting is essential to preventive maintenance programs and reliable demand supply programs. This paper describes a midterm load forecasting method using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model which has been widely used in time series forecasting due to its accuracy and predictability. The various ARIMA models are examined in order to find the optimal model having minimum error of the midterm load forecasting. The proposed method is applied to forecast 104-week load pattern using the historical data in Korea. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by forecasting 104-week load from 2011 to 2012 by using historical data from 2002 to 2010.

Keywords

References

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