Journal of Environmental Science International (한국환경과학회지)

The Korean Environmental Sciences Society (한국환경과학회)
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Prediction of Regional Drought considering Aspect and Elevation in Jeju Island under Future Climate Change

미래 기후변화에 따른 제주도의 사면과 해발고도별 가뭄 예측

  • Park, Jong-Chul (Institute of Geographic Information Science, Kongju National University) ;
  • Choi, Kwang-Jun (Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation) ;
  • Song, Sung-Ho (Rural Research Institute, Korea Rural Community Corporation)
  • 박종철 (공주대학교 지리정보과학연구소) ;
  • 최광준 (한국농어촌공사 농어촌연구원) ;
  • 송성호 (한국농어촌공사 농어촌연구원)
  • Received : 2014.01.27
  • Accepted : 2014.04.10
  • Published : 2014.04.30
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Abstract

Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation and temperature occur with regard to aspect and elevation of Mt. Halla in Jeju Island. Therefore, there is a need to predict regional drought associate with them to mitigate of impacts of drought. In this study, regional drought is predicted based on Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and standardized precipitation index (SPI) using future (2015~2044) climate change scenario RCP (representative concentration pathways) 4.5 classified as 24 regions according to aspect and elevation. The results show that number and duration of drought will be decrease in Jeju Island. However, severity of severe drought will be increase in western and northern aspect with under 200 meters above mean sea level. These findings provide primary information for developing the proactive strategies to mitigate impacts of drought by future climate change in Jeju Island.

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