대한토목학회논문집 (KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research)

  • 제34권2호
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  • Pages.583-595
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  • 2014
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  • 1015-6348(pISSN)
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  • 2799-9629(eISSN)
대한토목학회 (Korean Society of Civil Engeneers)
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도로 안전성 분석 모형에 관한 연구: 전라북도 국도 권역을 중심으로

A Study on the Road Safety Analysis Model: Focused on National Highway Areas in Cheonbuk Province

  • 투고 : 2013.06.03
  • 심사 : 2013.12.25
  • 발행 : 2014.04.01
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초록

현재 우리나라의 교통정책은 도로의 신설 확장은 지양하고, 도로의 선형 및 시설을 개량하여 안전성을 증대시키고, 친환경적이며 효율적으로 운영할 수 있는 방향으로 나아가고 있다. 이는 국가 도로사업 중 하나인 제2차 국도 5개년계획('06~'10)이 확장 53건(71%), 개량 22건(29%)인 반면, 제3차 국도 5개년계획('11~'15)은 확장 22건(30%), 개량 50건(70%)로 변화된 것으로 나타나고 있다. 이러한 시설개량위주의 도로사업을 좀 더 효과적으로 추진하기 위해서는 도로의 안전성을 객관적이고 과학적으로 판단하여 사업을 선정하고, 사업에 따른 안전성 향상에 대한 평가가 이루어져야 한다고 판단된다. 본 연구는 이러한 도로별 안전성 분석 및 평가를 위한 모형을 개발하는데 목적이 있다. 본 연구의 주요내용은 미국의 HSM (Highway Safety Manual)을 근간으로 하여 한국실정에 맞게 도로의 안전성을 분석하고 평가할 수 있는 모형을 개발하는 것이다. 모형 정립을 위한 데이터 구축은 전라북도 권역 5개 국도호선을 대상으로 기하구조 요인이 동일하다고 판단되는 구간을 동질성 구간으로 구분하였고, 구분된 1,452개 구간에 대하여 도로 기하구조, 시설물, 교통량, 기상상태, 토지이용 등의 대표값을 수집하였다. 수집된 자료는 교통사고와 각 도로요소의 상관관계 분석을 수행하여 어떠한 요인이 교통사고에 큰 영향을 미치는지 분석하였고, 이를 바탕으로 음이항회귀모형으로 사고모형을 정립하였다. 개발된 모형을 가지고 교통량과 도로구간연장을 이용하여 발생사고건수를 예측하는 안전성능함수와 도로기하구조 및 교통특성 등의 변화에 따라 사고빈도 변화를 결정하는 사고수정계수를 도출하였다.

Currently, Korean transportation policies are aiming for increase of safety and environment-friendly and efficient operation, by avoiding construction and expansion of roads, and upgrading road alignments and facilities. This is revealed by that there have been 22 road expansion projects (30%) and 50 road improvement projects (70%) under the 3rd Five-Year Plan for National Highways ('11~'15), while there were 53 road expansion projects (71%) and 22 road improvement projects (29%) under the 2nd Five-Year Plan for National Highways. For more effective road improvement projects, there is a need of choosing projects after an objective and scientific safety assessment of each road, and assessing safety improvement depending on projects. This study is intended to develop a model for this road safety analysis and assessment. The major objective of this study is creating a road safety analysis and assessment model appropriate for Korean society, based on the HSM (Highway Safety Manual) of the U.S. In order to build up data for model development, the sections thought to have identical geometrical structure factors in 5 lines, Cheonbuk province, were divided as homogeneous sections, and representative values of geometric structures, facilities, traffic volume, climate conditions and land usage were collected from the 1,452 sections divided. In order to build up data for model development, the sections thought to have identical geometrical structure factors in 5 lines, Cheonbuk province, were divided as homogeneous sections, and representative values of geometric structures, facilities, traffic volume, climate conditions and land usage were collected from the 1,452 sections divided. The collected data was processed correlation analysis of each road element was implemented to see which factor had a big effect on traffic accidents. On the basis of these results, then, an accident model was established as a negative binomial regression model.Using the developed model, an Crash Modification Factor (CMF) which determines accident frequency changes depending on safety performance function (SPF) predicting the number of accident occurrence through traffic volume and road section expansion, road geometric structure and traffic properties, was extracted.

키워드

참고문헌

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피인용 문헌

  1. Traffic Safety Technology Proposal for Chungcheong Region vol.16, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2015.16.2.1524