DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

ICT 자본 투입이 노동 및 에너지 수요에 미치는 영향: 한국, 미국, 영국의 제조업 및 전기·가스·수도사업의 생산구조 비교

Effect of ICT Capital on the Demands for Labor and Energy in Major Industries of Korea, US, and UK

  • 김지효 (서울대학교 국제에너지인력양성사업단) ;
  • 허은녕 (서울대학교 에너지시스템공학부)
  • Kim, Jihyo (International Energy Policy Program(IEPP), Seoul National University) ;
  • Heo, Eunnyeong (Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Seoul National University)
  • 투고 : 2014.12.22
  • 심사 : 2014.02.27
  • 발행 : 2014.03.30

초록

본 논문은 한국, 미국, 영국의 제조업 및 전기 가스 수도사업에서 ICT 확산이 노동 및 에너지 수요에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 연구하였다. 제조업에 대해서는 ICT 자본, 비ICT 자본, 노동, 전기, 연료, 재료를 생산요소로 가정하고, 전기 가스 수도사업에 대해서는 ICT 자본, 비 ICT 자본, 노동, 에너지 재료를 생산요소로 가정하여 요소 간 대체관계를 분석하였다. 모리시마 대체탄력성 추정결과 및 요소의 상대적 가격변화를 고려할 때, 3개 국가의 제조업 및 전기 가스 수도사업에서 ICT 자본은 노동을 대체하여 노동 수요를 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. ICT 자본에 비해 전기 및 연료의 가격증가율이 높은 미국과 영국의 제조업에서 ICT 자본은 전기 및 연료를 대체하여 에너지 수요를 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 한국의 제조업에서 ICT 자본과 전기 및 연료가 대체관계에 있으나, 요소의 상대적 가격변화를 고려하면 ICT 자본이 에너지 수요 감소에 기여했다고 보기 어렵다. 3개 국가의 전기 가스 수도사업에서 ICT 자본은 에너지 재료를 거의 탄력적으로 대체하여 에너지 재료 수요를 감소시키는 것으로 분석되었다.

We investigate the effect of ICT capital on the demands for labor and energy in manufacturing and electricity gas water industries of Korea, US, and UK. Assuming ICT capital, non-ICT capital, labor, electricity, fuel, and material as input factors for manufacturing and ICT capital, non-ICT capital, labor and energy material as input factors for electricity gas water industry, we estimate the Morishima elasticities of substitution. Considering the relative price changes of input factors, ICT capital has substituted labor in manufacturing and electricity water gas industries of the three countries. ICT capital has substituted both electricity and fuel in US and UK manufacturing. Although ICT capital has substituted electricity and fuel each other in Korean manufacturing, ICT capital is unlikely to decrease the demands for electricity and fuel when considering their relative price changes. ICT capital has substituted energy material in electricity gas water industries of the three countries.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. 고윤미, 해외 창조지수 현황 분석 및 국내 창조경제지수 개발을 위한 제언, Issue Paper 2013-03, 한국과학기술기획평가원, 2013.
  2. 김지효. 허은녕, "정규성 개선에 중점을 둔 제조업 에너지 수요구조 모형 연구: 오목성 조건을 만족하는 Translog 비용함수 모형", 자원환경경제연구, 제19권 제3호, 2010, pp. 633-658.
  3. 남성일, "한국의 노동수요: 문헌연구", 노동경제논집, 제 36권, 제 1호, 2013, pp. 1-44.
  4. 문성배. 홍동표, "요소대체성, 요소편향적 기술변화가 고학력노동 수요 결정에 미친 영향 분석", 경제학연구, 제 52집, 제4호, 2004, pp. 63-86.
  5. 박승록, "창조경제에서 정보통신기술의 활용과 일자리 창출 및 성장", 2014 경제학공동학술대회 (사)한국생산성학회 발표논문집, 2014, pp. 27-52.
  6. 산업자원통상부, 제2차 에너지기본계획, 2014.
  7. 서환주. 허재준. 이영수, "ICT확산, 기업조직, 제품차별화, 숙련노동의 보완관계", 경제학연구, 제52집, 제 2호, 2004, pp. 33-65.
  8. 정선영, "정보통신산업의 총요소생산성 국제비교: 기술적 효율성을 감안한 접근방법", 경제학연구, 제59집, 제1호, 2011, pp. 25-53.
  9. 조상섭, "정보통신자본(IT capital stock)의 노동생산성 기여도 분석", 정보통신정책 연구, 제9권, 제1호, 2002, pp. 119-139.
  10. 홍효진. 홍필기. 이영수, "IT투자가 노동수요에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구", 정보화정책, 제17권, 제4호, 2010, pp. 44-60.
  11. Barnett, W. A., Y. W. Lee, and M. D. Wolfe, "The three dimensional global properties of the minflex laurent, generalized leontief, and translog flexible functional forms," Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 30, 1985, pp. 3-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(85)90129-0
  12. Berndt, E. R., C. J. Morrison, and L. S. Rosenblum, High-tech capital formation and labor composition in U.S. manufacturing industries: An exploratory analysis, NBER Working Paper No. 4010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, 1992.
  13. Berndt, E. R., and D. O. Wood, "Technology, prices, and the derived demand for energy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 57, 1975, pp. 259-268. https://doi.org/10.2307/1923910
  14. Binswanger, H. P., "A cost function approach to the measurement of elasticities of factor demand and elasticities of substitution," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 56, 1974, pp. 377-386. https://doi.org/10.2307/1238771
  15. Blackorby, C. and P. R. Russell, "Will the real elasticity of substitution please stand up? (A comparison of Allen/Uzawa and Morishima elasticities)," The American Economic Review, Vol. 79, 1989, pp. 882-888.
  16. Cho, Y., J. Lee, and T-Y. Kim, "The impact of ICT investment and energy price on industrial electricity demand: dynamic growth model approach," Energy Policy, Vol. 35(9), 2007, pp. 4730-4738. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.03.030
  17. Christensen, L. R., D. W., Jorgenson, and L. J. Lau, "Transcendental logarithmic production frontiers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 55, 1973, pp. 28-45. https://doi.org/10.2307/1927992
  18. Chun, H., "Information technology and the demand for educated workers: disentangling the impacts of adoption versus use," Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 85, 2003, pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465303762687668
  19. Collard, F., P. Feve, and F. Portier, (2005) "Electricity consumption and ICT in the French service sector," Energy Economics, 27, pp. 541-550. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2004.12.002
  20. Considine, T. J., "Separability, functional form and regualtory policy in models of interfuel substitution," Energy Economics, Vol. 11, 1989, pp. 82-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(89)90001-7
  21. Considine, T. J., and T. D. Mount, "The use of linear logit models for dynamic input demand systems," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 66, 1984, pp. 434-443. https://doi.org/10.2307/1924999
  22. Diewert, W. E. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 4, 1976, pp. 115-145. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(76)90009-9
  23. Diewert, W. E., and T. J. Wales, "Flexible functional forms and global curvature conditions," Econometrica, Vol. 55, 1987, pp. 43-68. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911156
  24. EU KLEMS, EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts, 2013.
  25. Feng. G. and A. Serletis, "Productivity trends in U.S. manufacturing: Evidence from the NQ and AIM cost functions," Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 142, 2008, pp. 281-311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.06.002
  26. Griffin, J. M. and P. R. Gregory, "An intercountry translog model of energy substitution responses," The American Economic Review, Vol. 66, 1976, pp. 845-857.
  27. IEA, Energy Blances of OECD Countries 2011 Edition, International Energy Agency, Paris, 2011.
  28. IEA, Energy Prices and Taxes: Quarterly Statistics(First Quarter 2012), International Energy Agency, Paris, 2012.
  29. Jalava, J. and M. Pohjola, (2007) "ICT as a source of output and productivity growth in Finland," Telecommunication Policy, Vol. 31, 2007, pp. 463-472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2007.05.011
  30. Jones, C. T., "A dynamic analysis of interfuel substitution in U.S. industrial energy demand," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 13, 1995, pp. 459-465. https://doi.org/10.2307/1392391
  31. Kim, J., Separability and Substitutability between Energy and Capital: Evidences from KLEM Analyses of 10 OECD Countries, Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Seoul National University, 2012.
  32. Kim, J. and E. Heo, "Asymmetric substitutability between energy and capital: Evidence form the manufacturing sectors in 10 OECD countries," Energy Economics, Vol. 40, 2013, pp. 81-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.06.014
  33. Kim, T-Y. and A. Heshmati, Economic Growth: The New Perspectives for Theory and Policy, Springer, 2014.
  34. Koetse, M. J., H. L. F. de Groot, and R. J. G. M. Florax, "Capital-energy substitution and shifts in factor demand: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Vol. 30, 2008, pp. 2236-2251. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2007.06.006
  35. Krinsky, I. and A. L. Robb, "On approximating the statistics properties of elasticities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 68, 1986, pp. 715-719. https://doi.org/10.2307/1924536
  36. Martinez, D., J. Rodriguez, and J. L. Torres, "ICT-specific technological change and productivity growth in the US: 1980-2004," Information Economics and Policy, Vol. 22, 2010, pp. 121-129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2009.07.001
  37. Mills, M. P., The Internet Begins with Coal: A Preliminary Exploration of the Impact of the Internet on Electricity Consumption Greening Earth Society, Arlington, VA, 1999.
  38. O'Mahony, M., C. Robinson, and M. Vecchi, "The impact of ICT on the demand for skilled labour: A cross-country comparison," Labour Economics, Vol. 15, 2008, pp. 1435-1450. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2008.02.001
  39. Oliner, S. D. and D. E. Sichel, "Information technology and productivity: where are we now and where are we going?" Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 25, 2003, pp. 477-503. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0161-8938(03)00042-5
  40. Park, S.-H., "Decomposition of industrial energy consumption: An alternative method," Energy Economics, Vol. 14, 1992, pp. 265-270. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(92)90031-8
  41. Romm, J., "The internet and the new energy economy," Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 36, 2002, pp. 197-210. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-3449(02)00084-8
  42. Roy, J., A. H. Sanstad, J. A. Sathaye, and R. Khaddaria, "Substitution and price elasticity estimates using inter-country pooled data in a translog cost model," Energy Economics, Vol. 28, 2006, pp. 706-719. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.05.008
  43. Ryan, D. L., and T. J. Wales, "Imposing local concavity in the translog and generalized Leontief cost functions," Economics Letters, Vol. 67, 2000, pp. 253-260. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00280-3
  44. Sadorsky, P., "Information communication technology and electricity consumption in emerging economics," Energy Policy, Vol. 48, 2012, pp. 130-136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.064
  45. Serletis, A., G. Timilsina, and O. Vasetsky, "International evidence on sectoral interfuel substitution," The Energy Journal, Vol. 31, 2010, pp. 1-29.
  46. Solow, R., We'd Better Watchout, New York Times Book Review, 1987.
  47. Steinbucks, J. "Interfuel substitution and energy use in the U.K. manufacturing sector," The Energy Journal, Vol. 33, 2012, pp. 1-30.
  48. Takase, K., and Y. Murota, "The impact of IT investment on energy: Japan and US comparison in 2010," Energy Policy, Vol. 32(11), 2004, pp. 1291-1301. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00097-1
  49. Timmer, M. P. and B. van Ark, "Does information and communication technology drive EU-US productivity growth differentials?" Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 57(4), 2005, pp. 693-716. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpi032
  50. Timmer, M., T. van Moergastel, E. Stuivenwold, and G. Ypma, EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts, Version 1.0 ed., EU KLEMS consortium, 2007.
  51. Walker, W. "Information technology and the use of energy," Energy Policy, Vol. 13(5), 1985, pp. 458-476. https://doi.org/10.1016/0301-4215(85)90102-8
  52. Zakeri, Z., M. E. Kalukan, V. Faaliyat, and E. Cheraian, "The job creation potential of the information and communication technology sector: the case of Iran," International Conference on Economics and Finance Research, Vol. 32, 2012, pp. 22-25.
  53. Zellner, A., "An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and test for aggregation bias," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 57, 1962, pp. 348-368. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1962.10480664

피인용 문헌

  1. How ICT investment influences energy demand in South Korea and Japan vol.9, pp.2, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-015-9384-9