한국 제조업에서의 노동소득분배율 변동요인 분석

An Analysis of Movements in the Labor Share of Income in the Korean Manufacturing Industries

본 연구에서는 한국 제조업의 노동소득분배율 변동요인을 1991-2009년 18개 산업 패널자료를 이용해 신고전파 경제학적 접근과 칼레키-포스트케인지안-정치경제학적 접근을 통합한 분석모형을 구축하고 실증 분석하였다. 분석결과, 수출과 수입 등 무역의 존도의 증가는 노동소득분배율을 높이고, 노동조합 조직률의 하락, 자본증진적 기술진보, 생산의 세계화가 노동소득분배율을 하락시킨 것으로 나타났다. 1997년 IMF 경제위기 이후 제도변화의 영향으로는 노동시장의 유연화와 노동조합의 고용규제력 약화로 노조조직률은 노동소득분배율에 영향을 미치지 못한 반면 외주비율 확대가 노동소득분배율을 하락시켰으며, 수출의 노동소득분배율 개선효과가 감소하여 낙수효과가 약화된 것으로 나타났다. 그밖에 주주 권한을 강화하는 기업지배구조 개편이 노동소득분배율을 하락시킨다는 포스트케인지안의 금융화 명제를 뒷받침하는 증거는 발견되지 않았다.

Labor share of income in Korea has fallen from 90% in 1996 to 79% in 2010. This paper explores the factors driving the movements in the labor share of income based on a panel dataset containing 19 years of data on 18 Korean manufacturing industries. The effects of technical progress, globalization and the bargaining power of labor and capital on the labor share of income are tested for the period of 1991-2009. The main empirical results are as follows. (1) Capital-aug menting technical prog ress measured by capital-labor ratio and R&D intensity has a negative effect on the labor share. (2) Market openness measured by the value of export and import as a ratio to value-added production is found to have a positive impact. (3) Globalization of production measured by inward-FDI and outward-FDI as a ratio to total domestic fixed capital is found to have a negative impact on the labor share. (4) Union density is found to have had a statistically significant effect in 1991-1998. This finding is consistent with the efficient bargain model in which firms and workers bargain over both wages and employment. But union density is insignificant in 2000-2009. This implies that since the financial crisis in 1997, the bargaining institution in Korea has been approaching the right-to-manage model in which firms and unions bargain over wages and then firms set employment unilaterally. (5) Variables for domestic financialization measured by dividend-income ratio and financial-fixed assets ratio have an insignificant effect on labor share.