Using Artificial Neural Networks for Forecasting Algae Counts in a Surface Water System

Algal blooms in potable water supplies are becoming an increasingly prevalent and serious water quality problem around the world. In addition to precipitating taste and odor problems, blooms damage the environment, and some classes like cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) release toxins that can threaten human health, even causing death. There is a recognized need in the water industry for models that can accurately forecast in real-time algal bloom events for planning and mitigation purposes. In this study, using data for an interconnected system of rivers and reservoirs operated by a New Jersey water utility, various ANN models, including both discrete prediction and classification models, were developed and tested for forecasting counts of three different algal classes for one-week and two-weeks ahead periods. Predictor model inputs included physical, meteorological, chemical, and biological variables, and two different temporal schemes for processing inputs relative to the prediction event were used. Despite relatively limited historical data, the discrete prediction ANN models generally performed well during validation, achieving relatively high correlation coefficients, and often predicting the formation and dissipation of high algae count periods. The ANN classification models also performed well, with average classification percentages averaging 94 percent accuracy. Despite relatively limited data events, this study demonstrates that with adequate data collection, both in terms of the number of historical events and availability of important predictor variables, ANNs can provide accurate real-time forecasts of algal population counts, as well as foster increased understanding of important cause and effect relationships, which can be used to both improve monitoring programs and forecasting efforts.