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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of the Heavy Rainfall Event Occurred on 6th August 2003 over the Korean Peninsula

앙상블 민감도를 이용한 2003년 8월 6일 집중 호우 역학 분석

  • Noh, Namkyu (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Shin-Woo (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Ha, Ji-Hyun (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lim, Gyu-Ho (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
  • 노남규 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 김신우 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 하지현 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부) ;
  • 임규호 (서울대학교 자연과학대학 지구환경과학부)
  • Received : 2012.11.28
  • Accepted : 2012.12.31
  • Published : 2013.03.31
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Abstract

Ensemble sensitivity has been recently proposed as a method to analyze the dynamics of severe weather events. We adopt it to investigate the physical mechanism which caused the heavy rainfall over the Korean Peninsula on 6th August 2003. Two rainfall peaks existed in this severe weather event. The selected response functions are 1 hour accumulated rainfall amount of each rainfall peak. Sensitivity fields were calculated using 36 ensemble members which were generated by WRFDA. The sensitive regions for the first rainfall peak are located over the Shandong Peninsula and the Yellow Sea at 12 hours before the first rainfall peak. However, the 12-h forecast sensitivity for the second rainfall peak is revealed near Typhoon ETAU (0310) and midlatitude trough. These results show that the first rainfall peak was induced by low pressure which located over the northern part of the Korean Peninsula while the second rainfall peak was caused by the interaction between typhoon ETAU and midlatitude trough.

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References

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