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경사제 피복재의 유지관리를 위한 추계학적 Markov 확률모형의 개발

Development of Stochastic Markov Process Model for Maintenance of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
  • 투고 : 2013.02.21
  • 심사 : 2013.04.08
  • 발행 : 2013.04.30

초록

경사제 피복재의 시간에 따른 파괴확률을 산정할 수 있는 추계학적 Markov 확률모형을 개발하였다. 하중발생에 대한 CP/RP 해석과 누적피해사건에 대한 DP 해석을 결합하여 수학적 모형을 수립하고 경사제 피복재에 적용하였다. 피복재의 피해수준에 대한 정의와 MCS 기법을 이용하여 이행확률을 산정하고 분석하였다. 산정된 이행확률들은 확률적으로나 물리적으로 만족해야하는 제약조건들을 잘 충족한다. 또한 경사제 피복재의 설계와 관련하여 중요한 변수로 생각되는 재현기간 및 안전율의 변화에 따른 시간 의존 파괴확률을 산정하여 그 거동 특성을 자세히 비교 분석하였다. 특히 시간 의존 파괴확률이 이전단계의 피해수준에 의해 어떻게 달라지는지를 정량적으로 해석할 수 있었다. 마지막으로 유지관리에서 가장 중요한 보수보강 시점을 결정할 수 있는 두 가지 접근방법을 제시하고 경제성 분석을 포함한 다양한 해석이 수행되었다.

A stochastic Markov process (MP) model has been developed for evaluating the probability of failure of the armor unit of rubble-mound breakwaters as a function of time. The mathematical MP model could have been formulated by combining the counting process or renewal process (CP/RP) on the load occurrences with the damage process (DP) on the cumulative damage events, and applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. Transition probabilities have been estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) technique with the definition of damage level of armor units, and very well satisfies some conditions constrained in the probabilistic and physical views. The probabilities of failure have been also compared and investigated in process of time which have been calculated according to the variations of return period and safety factor being the important variables related to design of armor units of rubble-mound breakwater. In particular, it can be quantitatively found how the prior damage levels can effect on the sequent probabilities of failure. Finally, two types of methodology have been in this study proposed to evaluate straightforwardly the repair times which are indispensable to the maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters and shown several simulation results including the cost analyses.

키워드

참고문헌

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피인용 문헌

  1. Development of Stochastic Expected Cost Model for Preventive Optimal- Maintenance of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters vol.25, pp.5, 2013, https://doi.org/10.9765/KSCOE.2013.25.5.276
  2. Discounted Cost Model of Condition-Based Maintenance Regarding Cumulative Damage of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters as a Discrete-Time Stochastic Process vol.29, pp.2, 2017, https://doi.org/10.9765/KSCOE.2017.29.2.109
  3. Condition-Based Model for Preventive Maintenance of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters using Stochastic Process vol.28, pp.4, 2016, https://doi.org/10.9765/KSCOE.2016.28.4.191