A System Dynamics Analysis Model for Housing Demand-Supply according to the Changes in the Household Structure - Focused on the Market Change of Single-person Housing in Gwangjin-Gu, Seoul -

시스템다이내믹스 기반 가구구조시장 감응형 주택수요-공급 분석모델 개발 - 서울특별시 광진구의 1인가구주택 시장변화를 중심으로 -

The current changes in household structure affect the residential environment and lifestyle of households. Especially the change of requirements to spec of housing has been considered to provide housing to meet the demands. As an important factor of national economy, the housing market needs to respond elastically to the change of demand caused by the new trend of household structure. However, owing to the complexity of housing market, the event-oriented approach methodologies have several difficulties and shortage to forecast housing market. Herein, System Dynamics(SD) methodology has been applied to provide understandable reasons in detail on how the housing market responses to the change in the household structure. Based on the casual loop diagram of housing market, the simulation model was constructed using Vensim DSS 6.0.1, and the case of single-person household in Gwangjin-Gu, Seoul was simulated. The result of this study provides the demand-supply model as foundation of an analysis and forecast the housing market according to the change in household structure. Due to the lead time of housing supply, however, the imbalance between supply and demand had caused an insecure housing market to be solved by government and stakeholders of market. The suggested model is expected to support decision making on the housing policy and business.