International Journal of Fluid Machinery and Systems

Korean Society for Fluid machinery (한국유체기계학회)
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Machine Condition Prognostics Based on Grey Model and Survival Probability

  • Tangkuman, Stenly (Department of Mechanical Engineering, San Ratulangi University) ;
  • Yang, Bo-Suk (Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering, Pukyong National University) ;
  • Kim, Seon-Jin (Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering, Pukyong National University)
  • Received : 2012.03.26
  • Accepted : 2012.08.26
  • Published : 2012.12.31
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Abstract

Predicting the future condition of machine and assessing the remaining useful life are the center of prognostics. This paper contributes a new prognostic method based on grey model and survival probability. The first step of the method is building a normal condition model then determining the error indicator. In the second step, the survival probability value is obtained based on the error indicator. Finally, grey model coupled with one-step-ahead forecasting technique are employed in the last step. This work has developed a modified grey model in order to improve the accuracy of prediction. For evaluating the proposed method, real trending data of low methane compressor acquired from condition monitoring routine were employed.

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References

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