Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy

Asian Society for Innovation and Policy (아시아기술혁신학회)
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A New Approach to Estimating Product Lifetimes: A Case Study of an LED Based LCD TV

  • Kim, Keun-Hwan (University of Science & Technology (UST)) ;
  • Kim, Chi-Hwan (Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI)) ;
  • Park, Hyun-Woo (Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI))
  • Published : 2012.07.01
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Abstract

Estimating the economic life of a technology is the first important prerequisite step in the feasibility analysis of technology-based business. Many empirical studies have concentrated on patents data to estimate the time period for a technology. However, it is recommended to estimate it along with qualitative considerations of future technological and market conditions. In this regard, little is known about how approaches are applied. This paper aims to establish a structural framework of estimating the lifetime of a technology by integrating the outputs of an analysis of the determinants in each transition of a product life cycle. We describe an illustrative case about a light emitting diode (LED) backlight unit (BLU) technology for the liquid crystal display (LCD) TV. The framework allows valuators and experts to estimate a technology lifetime by using multidimensional factors.

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