Evolution of Wireless Technologies: Exploring the Technology Trajectory in Competitive Wireless Industry

무선통신기술의 진화: 무선통신산업 경쟁하의 기술 경로 탐색

  • Published : 2011.08.31

Abstract

The paper presents the technology trajectory of competitive wireless technologies in wireless industry. We attempt to trace the trajectory of wireless technologies with historical data, and then analyze its pattern. As a preliminary result, we find that there exists network effect and substitution effect in the trajectory. Our result can provide insight to wireless service providers where best to focus its efforts for maximizing overall gain in their networks as well as when to establish the transition strategy towards the next generation wireless network technologies.

이 논문은 무선통신 산업에 있어서 경쟁하의 무선통신기술의 진화 경로를 밝히고자 하였습니다. 저자는 과거 자료를 분석하기위해 로가렛분석(Loglet Analysis) 기법을 도입하였습니다. 초기 연구결과는 기술경로상에서 네트워크 효과와 대체효과가 존재한다는 것입니다. 이 논문의 결과는 무선통신 서비스 사업자에게 그들의 네트워크에서 이익을 최대화할 수 있는 방향과 차세대 무선통신기술 이전 전략을 수립하는데 이용될 수 있을 것입니다.

Keywords

References

  1. Arthur, W., "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns and Lock-in by Historical Evenets", Economic Journal, Vol.99, 1989, pp. 116-131. https://doi.org/10.2307/2234208
  2. Altinkemer, K. and S. Yilmaz, "Diffusion Models for the Digital Wireless Industry in the U.S. and the World", Journal of Organizational Computing and Electronic Commerce, Vol.18, 2008, pp. 131-149. https://doi.org/10.1080/10919390801997689
  3. Blackman, A., "The market of technological substitutions", Technological Forecasting and Social Changes, Vol.6, 1974, pp. 41-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(74)90005-5
  4. Bohm, V. and H. Haller, "Demand theory", The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, Vol.1, 1987, pp. 785-792.
  5. Brynjolfsson, E. and C. Kemerer, "Network externalities in microcomputer software: An econometric analysis of the spreadsheet market", Management Science, Vol.42, No.12, 1996, pp. 1627-1647. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.42.12.1627
  6. Cowan, R., "Nuclear power reactors: a study in technological lock-in", The Journal of Economic History, Vol.50, No.3, 1990, pp. 541-567. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050700037153
  7. Cowan, R., "Tortoises and Hares: Choice Among Technologies of Unknown Merit", Economic Journal, Vol.101, No.407, 1991, pp. 801-814. https://doi.org/10.2307/2233856
  8. Dosi, G., "Technological Paradigms and Technological Trajectories-A Suggested Interpretation of the Determinates and Directions of Technical Change", Research Policy, Vol.22, No.2, 1993, pp. 102-103.
  9. Dolfsma, W. and L. Leydesdorff, "Lock-in and break-out from technological trajectories: Modeling and policy implications", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.76, No.7, 2009, pp. 932-941. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.02.004
  10. Economides, N., "The Economics of Networks", International Journal of Industrial Organization, Vol.14, 1996, pp. 669-671. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-7187(96)01019-3
  11. Farrell, J. and G. Saloner, "Installed Base and Compatibility: Innovation, Product Preannouncements, and Predation", The American Economic Review, Vol.76, No.5, 1986, pp. 940-955.
  12. Fisher, J. and R. Pry, "A simple substitution model of technological change", Technological Forecasting and Social Changes, Vol.3, 1971, pp. 75-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(71)80005-7
  13. Katz, M. and C. Shapiro, "Network externalities, competition, and compatibility", The American Economic Review, Vol.75, No.3, 1985, pp. 424-440.
  14. Katz, M. and C. Shapiro, "Systems Competition and Network Effects", Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.8, No.2, 1994, pp. 93-115. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.8.2.93
  15. Kim, K., D. Lee, and J. Ahn, "A dynamic competition analysis on the Korean mobile phone market using competitive diffusion model", Computers and Industrial Engineering, Vol.51, 2006, pp. 174-182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2006.07.009
  16. Kucharavy, D. and R. de Guio, "Application of S-Shaped Curves", the Proceedings on the 7th ETRIA TRIZ Future Conference, Kassel University Press GmbH, Kassel, Frankfurt, Germany, 2007.
  17. Liebowitz, S. and S. Margolis, "Network externality: An uncommon tragedy", Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.8, 1994, pp. 133-50.
  18. Marchetti, C. and N. Nakicenovic, "The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model", Research Report RR-79-13, Luxenburg, Australia, IIASA, 1995.
  19. Meyer, P., J. Yung, and J. Ausubel, "A Primer on Logistic Growth and Substitution: The Mathematics of the Loglet Software", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.61, No.3, 1999, pp. 247-271. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00021-9
  20. Meyer, P., "Bi-logistic growth", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.47, 1994, pp. 89-102. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(94)90042-6
  21. Nelson, R. and S. Winter, An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1982.
  22. Norton, J. and F. Bass, "A diffusion theory model of adoption and substitution for successive generations of high technology products", Mana Science, Vol.33, No.9, 1987, pp 1069-1086. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.33.9.1069
  23. Oren, S. and S. Smith, "Critical Mass and Tariff Structure in Electronic Communications Markets", Bell Journal of Economics, Vol.12, 1981, pp. 467-87. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003567
  24. Peterka, V., Macrodynamtcs of Technological Change Market Penetration by New Technologies, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 1977.
  25. Pry, F., "A simple substitution model of technological change", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.3, 1971, pp. 75-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(71)80005-7
  26. Rohlfs, J., "A theory of interdependent demand for a communications service", Bell Journal of Economics, Vol.5, 1974, pp. 16-37. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003090
  27. Rosenberg, N., Inside the Black Box: Technology and Economics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1982.
  28. Saviotti, P. and A. Trickett, "The Evolution of Helicopter Technology; 1940-1986", Economics of Innovation and New Technologies, Vol.2, 1992, pp. 111-130. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599200000009
  29. Sharif, M. and C. KABIR, "A Generalized Model for Forecasting Technological Substitution", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.8, 1976, pp. 353-364. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(76)90027-5