Korea journal of population studies (한국인구학)

The Population Association of Korea (한국인구학회)
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Mortality Forecasting for the Republic of Korea: the Coherent Lee-Carter Method

한국의 사망력 추계 : 통합 Lee-Carter 방법

  • Received : 2011.08.31
  • Accepted : 2011.12.15
  • Published : 2011.12.30
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Abstract

This paper examines the performance of the coherent Lee-Carter method for the mortality forecasting for the Republic of Korea combined with Japan and the Taiwan Province of China as a group by comparing it with the separately applied Lee-Carter method. It narrowed the gap of life expectancies between three countries from 6.8 years to 3.0 years in 2050, with higher life expectancy forecasts for the Taiwan Province of China and lower ones for Japan than with the separate forecast. This method did not affect the sex-combined life expectancy forecast for the Republic of Korea, but it accelerated the mortality decline for ages 65 and over and decelerated it for the younger age groups, diminishing sex differentials of life expectancy at a slower speed. It suggests that the integration of regional mortality information into mortality forecasting of one country gives several advantages in terms of short run fit within each country as well as long run convergence between countries, a modification of the age pattern of mortality decline, and a consistent application of the forecasting of subgroups within a country.

이 연구에서는 한국의 사망력 추계를 위해 Li 와 Lee가 그룹 인구의 일관성 있는 사망력 추계를 위해 제안한 Coherent Lee-Carter방법을 일본, 타이완의 자료를 결합하여 적용하고, 이 방법의 적합을 검증하였으며, Lee-Carter방법을 각각 적용했을 때와의 결과를 비교하였다. 세 국가를 하나의 그룹으로 작성한 이 방법은 세 국가에 각각 Lee-Carter방법을 적용했을 때에 비해 타이완의 기대수명 증가를 가속시키고, 일본의 기대수명 증가를 감속시키면서, 2050년 세 국가의 기대수명 범위를 6.8세에서 3.0세로 감소시켰다. 한국의 경우는 남녀전체의 기대수명은 크게 변화시키지 않았으나, 65세 이상의 기대수명 증가를 가속화시키고, 65세 이하의 기대수명증가를 감속화 시켰으며, 남녀 기대수명 차이를 서서히 감소시켰다. 이 방법은 한 국가의 사망력 추계를 위해 사망환경이 유사한 국가의 사망력을 결합하는 것은 장기간의 사망력 수렴뿐만 아니라, 단기간의 사망력 추계의 적합도 향상, 연령별 사망력 감소 패턴의 보정 및 한 국가 내 세부 그룹 인구의 일관성 있는 사망력 추계에의 응용 등 여러 가지 장점이 있음을 시사한다.

Keywords

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