Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety (한국식품위생안전성학회지)

The Korean Society of Food Hygiene and Safety (한국식품위생안전성학회)
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Predictive mathematical model for the growth kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes on smoked salmon

온도와 시간을 주요 변수로한 훈제연어에서의 Listeria monocytogenes 성장예측모델

  • Cho, Joon-Il (Food Microbiology Division, Food Safety Evaluation Department, National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation, Food & Drug Administration) ;
  • Lee, Soon-Ho (Food Microbiology Division, Food Safety Evaluation Department, National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation, Food & Drug Administration) ;
  • Lim, Ji-Su (Food Microbiology Division, Food Safety Evaluation Department, National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation, Food & Drug Administration) ;
  • Kwak, Hyo-Sun (Food Microbiology Division, Food Safety Evaluation Department, National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation, Food & Drug Administration) ;
  • Hwang, In-Gyun (Food Microbiology Division, Food Safety Evaluation Department, National Institute of Food and Drug Safety Evaluation, Food & Drug Administration)
  • 조준일 (식품의약품안전청 식품의약품안전평가원 식품위해평가부 미생물과) ;
  • 이순호 (식품의약품안전청 식품의약품안전평가원 식품위해평가부 미생물과) ;
  • 임지수 (식품의약품안전청 식품의약품안전평가원 식품위해평가부 미생물과) ;
  • 곽효선 (식품의약품안전청 식품의약품안전평가원 식품위해평가부 미생물과) ;
  • 황인규 (식품의약품안전청 식품의약품안전평가원 식품위해평가부 미생물과)
  • Received : 2010.08.18
  • Accepted : 2011.05.02
  • Published : 2011.06.30
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Abstract

Predictive mathematical models were developed for predicting the kinetics of growth of Listeria monocytogenes in smoked salmon, which is the popular ready-to-eat foods in the world, as a function of temperature (4, 10, 20 and $30^{\circ}C$). At these storage temperature, the primary growth curve fit well ($r^2$=0.989~0.996) to a Gompertz equation to obtain specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT). The Polynomial model for natural logarithm transformation of the SGR and LT as a function of temperature was obtained by nonlinear regression (Prism, version 4.0, GraphPad Software). Results indicate L. monocytogenes growth was affected by temperature mainly, and SGR model equation is $365.3-31.94^*Temperature+0.6661^*Temperature^{\wedge^2}$ and LT model equation is $0.1162-0.01674^*Temperature+0.0009303^*Temperature{\wedge^2}$. As storage temperature decreased $30^{\circ}C$ to $4^{\circ}C$, SGR decreased and LT increased respectively. Polynomial model was identified as appropriate secondary model for SGR and LT on the basis of most statistical indices such as bias factor (1.01 by SGR, 1.55 by LT) and accuracy factor (1.03 by SGR, 1.58 by LT).

훈제연어의 L. monocytogenes에 대한 식중독 안전관리 방안 마련 및 위해평가 수행 등을 위하여 성장예측모텔을 개발하였다. 미생물 성장예측모델 개발 방법은 대상 식품 및 환경 조건에 따라 다양하며 통계적으로 유용한 모델을 사용하여야 하기에 본 연구에서는 미생물 성장예측모델 개발에 널리 사용되어 그 적용성이 검토된 Gompertz model과 Polynomial model equation을 이용하여 훈제연어의 L. monocytogenes 최대성장속도(SGR) 및 유도기(LT)에 관한 예측모텔을 개발하였다. 개발된 모델의 적합성 평가를 위해 $B_f$와 $A_f$ factor를 산출하였고 최대성장속도(SGR)의 경우 0.98, 1.06, 유도기(LT)의 경우 1.60, 1.63으로 나타나 유도기의 적합성이 최대성장속도에 비하여 떨어지는 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구에서 개발된 훈제연어에서의 L. monocytogenes 성장속도에 관한 모텔은, 수산업, 특히 훈제연어 생산, 가공, 보관 및 판매업에 다양한 방면으로 활용 가능할 것으로 판단되며, 더욱 정확한 예측모텔 개발을 위해서는 다양한 변수에 따른 미생물의 성장패턴 변화 등에 관한 연구가 추가적으로 시행되어야 할 것으로 생각되어 진다.

Keywords

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