Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care

Korean Society for Hospice and Palliative Care (한국호스피스완화의료학회)
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Predictability of Impending Events for Death within 48 Hours in Terminal Cancer Patients

말기암환자에서 임박사건 간 48시간 임종예측도 비교

  • Hwang, In-Cheol (Department of Family Medicine, Gachon University of Medicine and Science) ;
  • Choi, Chung-Hyun (Clinical Trial Center, Yonsei University Health System) ;
  • Kim, Kyoung-Kon (Department of Family Medicine, Gachon University of Medicine and Science) ;
  • Lee, Kyoung-Shik (Department of Family Medicine, Gachon University of Medicine and Science) ;
  • Suh, Heuy-Sun (Department of Family Medicine, Gachon University of Medicine and Science) ;
  • Shim, Jae-Yong (Department Family Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine)
  • 황인철 (가천의과학대학교 길병원 가정의학교실) ;
  • 최충현 (연세의료원 임상시험센터) ;
  • 김경곤 (가천의과학대학교 길병원 가정의학교실) ;
  • 이경식 (가천의과학대학교 길병원 가정의학교실) ;
  • 서희선 (가천의과학대학교 길병원 가정의학교실) ;
  • 심재용 (연세대학교 의과대학 강남세브란스병원 가정의학교실)
  • Received : 2010.10.07
  • Accepted : 2011.01.17
  • Published : 2011.03.01
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Abstract

Purpose: Recognition of impending death is crucial not only for efficient communication with the caregiver of the patient, but also determination of the time to refer to a separate room. Current studies simply list the events 'that have already occurred' around 48 hours before the death. This study is to analyze the predictability of each event by comparing the time length from 'change' to death. Methods: Subjects included 160 patients who passed away in a palliative care unit in Incheon. The analysis was limited to 80 patients who had medical records for the last week of their lives. We determined 9 symptoms and 8 signs, and established the standard of 'significant change' of each event before death. Results: The most common symptom was increased sleeping (53.8%) and the most common sign was decreased blood pressure (BP) (87.5%). The mean time to death within 48 hours was 46.8% in the case of resting dyspnea, 13.6% in the ease of low oxygen saturation, and 36.9% in the case of decreased BP. The symptom(s) which had the highest positive predictive value (PV) for death within 48 hours was shown to be resting dyspnea (83%), whereas the combination of resting dyspnea and confusion/delirium (65%) had the highest negative PV. As for the most common signs before death within 48 hours, the positive PVs were more than 95%, and the negative PV was the highest when decreased BP and low oxygen saturation were combined. The difference in survival patterns between symptoms and signs was significant. Conclusion: The most reliable symptoms to predict the impending death are resting dyspnea and confusion/delirium, and decline of oxygen saturation and BP are the reliable signs to predict the event.

목적: 임박사건(impending event)에 대한 인지는 보호자와의 보다 효과적인 의사소통을 위해 필요할 뿐 아니라, 임종실로 옮기는 시점을 결정하는데 있어서 매우 중요하다. 이 주제에 대한 지금까지의 연구는 대부분 임종 48시간을 전후한 시점에서 이미 '발생되어 있는' 증상의 나열에 불과하였다. 이에 '변화'의 시점에서 사망까지의 시간을 기준으로 하여 임박사건 간 48시간 이내 임종예측도를 비교하였다. 방법: 인천소재 완화의료병동에서 임종을 맞이한 160명의 환자 중 임종 전 일주일 동안의 의무기록이 있는 80명을 대상으로 하였다. 환자 및 보호자가 호소하는 주관적 증상 9가지와 의료인에 의해 관찰되는 객관적 징후 8가지를 선정하고 각 항목에 대한 '의미 있는 변화'의 기준을 사전에 정하였다. 결과: 증상에서는 수면량의 증가(53.8%), 징후에서는 혈압의 감소(87.5%)가 가장 높은 발생빈도를 보였다. 임종까지의 평균시간은 증상의 경우 안정 시 호흡곤란(46.8시간)이, 징후의 경우 산소포화도의 감소(13.6시간)와 혈압의 감소(36.9시간)가 48시간 이내였다. 48시간 임박사건으로서의 예측도는 증상의 경우, 양성예측도는 안정 시 호흡곤란이 가장 높았고(83%) 음성예측도는 안정 시 호흡곤란과 의식혼탁/섬망의 조합이 가장 높았으며(86%), 징후의 경우 양성 예측도는 모두 95% 이상이었고 음성예측도는 혈압의 감소와 산소포화도 감소의 조합에서 가장 높았다(60%). 증상과 징후의 발생양상은 유의한 차이를 보였다. 결론: 증상에서는 안정 시 호흡곤란과 의식혼탁/섬망이, 징후에서는 산소포화도나 혈압의 감소가 임종임박을 예측하는데 가장 유용한 임상지표로 생각된다.

Keywords

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