산업공학 (IE interfaces)

  • 제24권4호
  • /
  • Pages.323-329
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  • 2011
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  • 1225-0996(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2234-6465(eISSN)
대한산업공학회 (Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers)
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마코비안 도착과정을 이용한 축구경기 득점결과의 예측

Predicting the Score of a Soccer Match by Use of a Markovian Arrival Process

  • Kim, Nam-Ki (Department of Industrial Engineering, Chonnam National University) ;
  • Park, Hyun-Min (Department of Business Administration, Pai Chai University)
  • 투고 : 2011.08.31
  • 심사 : 2011.10.27
  • 발행 : 2011.12.01
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초록

We develop a stochastic model to predict the score of a soccer match. We describe the scoring process of the soccer match as a markovian arrival process (MAP). To do this, we define a two-state underlying Markov chain, in which the two states represent the offense and defense states of the two teams to play. Then, we derive the probability vector generating function of the final scores. Numerically inverting this generating function, we obtain the desired probability distribution of the scores. Sample numerical examples are given at the end to demonstrate how to utilize this result to predict the final score of the match.

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참고문헌

  1. Dixon, M. J. and Coles, S. G. (1997), Modelling Association Football Scores and Inefficiencies in the Football Betting Market, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, (Applied statistics), 46(2), 265-280. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9876.00065
  2. Dixon, M. J. and Robinson, M. E. (1998), A Birth Process Model for Association Football Matches, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D(The Statistician), 47(3), 523-538. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00152
  3. Dyte, D. and Clarke, S. R. (2000), A Rating Based Poisson Model for World Cup Soccer Simulation, The journal of the Operational Research Society, 51(8), 993-998. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600997
  4. Lee, H. W. (2006), Queueing Theory, Sigma Press, Seoul, Korea.
  5. Lucantoni, D. M. (1991), New Results on the Single Sever Queue with BMAP, Stochastic Models, 7(10), 1-46. https://doi.org/10.1080/15326349108807174
  6. Lucantoni, D. M. (1993), The BMAP/G/1 queue : A Tutorial, Lecture Notes in Computer Science : Performance Evaluation of Computer and Communications Systems, 729, 330-358.
  7. Neuts, M. F.(1981), Matrix Geometric Solutions in Stochastic Models, The Johns hopkins University Press, Baltimore.
  8. Srinivas R. C. (2001), The Batch Markovian Arrival Process : A Review and Future Work. In Advances in Probability and Stochastic Processes, Notable Publications, Inc., New Jersey, USA, 21-49.

피인용 문헌

  1. Using Data Mining Techniques to Predict Win-Loss in Korean Professional Baseball Games vol.40, pp.1, 2014, https://doi.org/10.7232/JKIIE.2014.40.1.008