Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
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Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Distribution by the Climate Change Scenarios

기후변화 시나리오에 따른 산림분포 취약성 평가

  • Lee, Sangchul (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Choi, Sungho (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Lee, Woo-Kyun (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Park, Taejin (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Oh, Suhyun (Department of Climatic Environment, Korea University) ;
  • Kim, Su-Na (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University)
  • 이상철 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과) ;
  • 최성호 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과) ;
  • 이우균 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과) ;
  • 박태진 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과) ;
  • 오수현 (고려대학교 기후환경학과) ;
  • 김순아 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과)
  • Received : 2011.03.04
  • Accepted : 2011.04.11
  • Published : 2011.06.30
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Abstract

This study was aiming at assessing the vulnerability of forest distribution by the A2 and B1 climate change scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The vulnerability of forest distribution was assessed using its sensitivity and adaptation to climate change with the help of the simulations of Korean-specific forest distribution model, so-called the Thermal Analogy Group (TAG), and the Plant Functional Type (PFT) defined in the HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups) model. As a result, the vulnerable area occupied 30.78% and 2.81% of Korea in A2 and B1 scenario, respectively. When it comes to the administrative districts, Pusan in A2 and Daegu in B1 appeared the most vulnerable area. This study would be employed into preparation of adaptative measures for forest in future in terms of using climate change scenarios reflecting different future development conditions.

본 연구에서는 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) 기후변화 시나리오 A2와 B1에 따른 산림분포 취약성을 평가하였다. 산림분포 취약성은 한국형 산림 생태계 분포 모델 Thermal Analogy Groups(TAG) 의 산림분포예측 방법과 Hydrology Thermal Analogy Groups(HyTAG)에서 정의한 식생유형을 이용하여 기후 변화에 따른 잠재 식물상(Plant Functional Type: PFT)의 분포 변화를 기후변화 민감성과 적응성으로 나누어 평가되었다. 그 결과, 산림분포가 취약한 지역의 면적은 A2 시나리오에서 전체 국토 면적의 30.78%, B1에서는 2.81%로 나타났다. 행정구역별 취약성 평가 결과는 부산이 A2 시나리오에서 가장 취약하고 대구가 B1 시나리오에서 가장 큰 취약성을 나타냈다. 미래 발전 방향에 따라서 상이하게 구축된 시나리오 별 산림 분포 취약성 결과는 앞으로 산림 분야 적응대책 수립에 중요한 자료로 이용될 것이다.

Keywords

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