The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers (전기학회논문지)

The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers (대한전기학회)
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Development of Short-Term Load Forecasting Method by Analysis of Load Characteristics during Chuseok Holiday

추석 연휴 전력수요 특성 분석을 통한 단기전력 수요예측 기법 개발

  • 권오성 (숭실대학교 전기공학부) ;
  • 송경빈 (숭실대학교 전기공학부)
  • Received : 2011.08.31
  • Accepted : 2011.10.31
  • Published : 2011.12.01
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Abstract

The accurate short-term load forecasting is essential for the efficient power system operation and the system marginal price decision of the electricity market. So far, errors of load forecasting for Chuseok Holiday are very big compared with forecasting errors for the other special days. In order to improve the accuracy of load forecasting for Chuseok Holiday, selection of input data, the daily normalized load patterns and load forecasting model are investigated. The efficient data selection and daily normalized load pattern based on fuzzy linear regression model is proposed. The proposed load forecasting method for Chuseok Holiday is tested in recent 5 years from 2006 to 2010, and improved the accuracy of the load forecasting compared with the former research.

Keywords

References

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