Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Climate Elasticity of Korean Streamflows

기후변동에 대한 한국 하천유량의 탄력성

  • Received : 2010.07.30
  • Accepted : 2010.09.02
  • Published : 2010.10.31
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Abstract

We investigated the sensitivity of Korean streamflows to climate variation. Historical dam inflows and climate data for eight multi-purpose dam sites were collected and examined to determine key factors affecting streamflow change. The results show that annual streamflow primarily responds to change in precipitation rather than temperature. However, the combination of less precipitation and high temperature induces a more serious decrease in streamflow than does similar precipitation and with low temperature. This result indicates that Korean water resources could be more vulnerable to drought due to increasing temperature caused by global warming. To estimate spatial differences in climate sensitivity, we also calculated climate elasticity for 109 mid-size watersheds using streamflow simulated by the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). Climate elasticity ranges over 1.5~1.9, indicating that a +20% increase in annual precipitation leads to a +30~+38% increase in annual streamflow.

본 연구에서는 강수량과 기온의 변동에 따른 국내 하천유량의 민감도를 평가하였다. 8개상류 다목적댐 유입량과 기후자료를 이용하여 기후가 유출량 변화에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 결과적으로 연유출량의 변화는 강수의 변화에 크게 영향을 받았지만 강수량이 평년에 비해 적고 기온이 높은 연도에서는 기온이 낮은 연도에 비해 연유출량이 더 크게 감소하는 경향을 보였다. 이러한 유출변화 특성은 한국의 수자원이 지구온난화로 인한 기온증가 상황에서 가뭄피해에 더 취약해질 가능성을 보여주었다. 또한, 본 연구에서는 공간적인 기후탄력성을 평가하기 위해 109개 중권역에 PRMS 모형을 적용하고 이 결과를 이용하여 기후탄력성을 평가하였다. 국내의 기후탄력성은 1.5~1.9로, 강수가 +20% 증가할 경우 연유출량은 +30~+38% 정도 증가되는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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