Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health

The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine (대한예방의학회)
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Mathematical Modeling of the Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus and Evaluation of the Epidemic Response Strategies in the Republic of Korea

수학적 모델을 이용한 신종인플루엔자 환자 예측 및 대응 전략 평가

  • Suh, Min-A (Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine) ;
  • Lee, Jee-Hyun (Department of Computational Science and Engineering, Yonsei University) ;
  • Chi, Hye-Jin (Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine) ;
  • Kim, Young-Keun (Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine) ;
  • Kang, Dae-Yong (Clinical Trials Center, Yonsei University Health System) ;
  • Hur, Nam-Wook (Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine) ;
  • Ha, Kyung-Hwa (Department of Public Health, Graduate School of Yonsei University) ;
  • Lee, Dong-Han (Division of Public Health Crisis Response, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) ;
  • Kim, Chang-Soo (Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine)
  • 서민아 (연세대학교 의과대학 예방의학교실) ;
  • 이지현 (연세대학교 WCU 계산과학공학과) ;
  • 지혜진 (연세대학교 의과대학 예방의학교실) ;
  • 김영근 (연세대학교 원주의과대학 감염내과) ;
  • 강대용 (연세의료원 임상시험센터) ;
  • 허남욱 (연세대학교 의과대학 예방의학교실) ;
  • 하경화 (연세대학교 대학원 보건학과) ;
  • 이동한 (질병관리본부 공중보건위기대응과) ;
  • 김창수 (연세대학교 의과대학 예방의학교실)
  • Published : 2010.03.31
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Abstract

Objectives: The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model. Methods: We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model. Results: The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million). Conclusions: Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model.

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