Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Uncertainty Analysis of Spatial Distribution of Probability Rainfall: Comparison of CEM and SGS Methods

확률강우량의 공간분포에 대한 불확실성 해석: CEM과 SGS 기법의 비교

  • 서영민 (영남대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 여운기 (영남대학교 건설시스템공학과) ;
  • 이승윤 (한국수자원공사, K-water 수자원연구원) ;
  • 지홍기 (영남대학교 건설시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2010.10.07
  • Accepted : 2010.10.22
  • Published : 2010.11.30
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Abstract

This study compares the CEM and SGS methods which are geostatistical stochastic simulation methods for assessing the uncertainty by spatial variability in the estimation of the spatial distribution of probability rainfall. In the stochastic simulations using CEM and SGS, two methods show almost similar results for the reproduction of spatial correlation structure, the statistics (standard deviation, coefficient of variation, interquartile range, and range) of realizations as uncertainty measures, and the uncertainty distribution of basin mean rainfall. However, the CEM is superior to SGS in aspect of simulation efficiency.

본 논문에서는 확률강우량에 대한 공간분포 추정에 있어서 공간변동성에 따른 불확실성을 평가하기 위하여 지구통계 학적 추계모의기법인 CEM과 SGS 기법을 비교하였다. CEM과 SGS를 이용한 추계모의에 있어서 공간상관구조의 재생성, 확률강우량에 대한 불확실성 평가측도로서 실현치에 대한 통계치(표준편차, 변동계수, 사분위수 범위 및 범위)의 공간분포, 유역평균강우량의 불확실성 분포의 경우 두 기법이 대체로 비슷한 결과를 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 모의 효율성 측면에서는 CEM이 SGS에 비해 우수한 결과를 나타내는 것으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

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