Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Application of Rainfall Runoff Model with Rainfall Uncertainty

강우자료의 불확실성을 고려한 강우 유출 모형의 적용

  • Published : 2009.10.30
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Abstract

The effects of rainfall input uncertainty on predictions of stream flow are studied based extended GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) approach. The uncertainty in the rainfall data is implemented by systematic/non-systematic rainfall measurement analysis in Weida catchment, Germany. PDM (Probability Distribution Model) rainfall runoff model is selected for hydrological representation of the catchment. Using general correction procedure and DUE(Data Uncertainty Engine), feasible rainfall time series are generated. These series are applied to PDM in MC(Monte Carlo) and GLUE method; Posterior distributions of the model parameters are examined and behavioural model parameters are selected for simplified GLUE prediction of stream flow. All predictions are combined to develop ensemble prediction and 90 percentile of ensemble prediction, which are used to show the effects of uncertainty sources of input data and model parameters. The results show acceptable performances in all flow regime, except underestimation of the peak flows. These results are not definite proof of the effects of rainfall uncertainty on parameter estimation; however, extended GLUE approach in this study is a potential method which can include major uncertainty in the rainfall-runoff modelling.

강우유출모형의 입력 자료로 사용되는 강우 관측 자료의 불확실성이 유량예측에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위하여 모형변수 검정의 불확실성 연구에서 사용하는 GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation)방법을 입력 자료 부분으로 확장하여 적용 하였다. 독일의 Weida 유역의 강우 관측 자료를 바탕으로 구조적 및 비구조적인 불확실성 부분을 각각 구조적인 오차 수정 과정과 DUE (Data Uncertainty Engine)을 통하여 강우자료를 구성하였다. 이를 유역의 수문학적 작용을 고려하기 위해 선정한 집중형 강우유출모형, PDM (Probability Distribution Model)에 MC (Monte Carlo)와 GLUE 방법을 활용하여 적용하였다. MC검정변수들의 검정 후 반응 표면(Posterior response surface)을 검토하고 GLUE 의 반응검정 모형변수(Behavioural model parameter set)를 선택, 간략한 GLUE 유량곡선들을 계산하였다. 계산된 GLUE 유량곡선들을 모두 합하여 앙상블 유량을 산정하고, 이 유량의 90 분위를 강우량자료 및 모형변수 검정의 불확실성을 고려한 신뢰구간으로 제시하였다. PDM 모형의 결과는 유량곡선의 전구간에서 안정적인 모의 능력을 보여주고 있으나, 첨두유량 부분이 적게 산정되는 문제점을 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서 상대적으로 적은 수의 강우 시나리오 및 반응검정 모형변수의 적용이라는 한계에도 불구하고, GLUE 방법을 강우관측자료의 불확실성 부분으로 확장하여 강우자료 및 변수 검정의 불확실성을 고려한 모의된 유량예측의 신뢰구간의 적용가능성을 보여주고 있다.

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