복합 추세를 가지는 수리가능 시스템의 고장 데이터 모형화에 관한 연구

Research for Modeling the Failure Data for a Repairable System with Non-monotonic Trend

The power law process model the Rate of occurrence of failures(ROCOF) with monotonic trend during the operating time. However, the power law process is inappropriate when a non-monotonic trend in the failure data is observed. In this paper we deals with the reliability modeling of the failure process of large and complex repairable system whose rate of occurrence of failures shows the non-monotonic trend. We suggest a sectional model and a change-point test based on the Schwarz information criterion(SIC) to describe the non-monotonic trend. Maximum likelihood is also suggested to estimate parameters of sectional model. The suggested methods are applied to field data from an repairable system.