대한수의학회지 (Korean Journal of Veterinary Research)

  • 제47권2호
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  • Pages.259-263
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  • 2007
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  • 2466-1384(pISSN)
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  • 2466-1392(eISSN)
대한수의학회 (The Korean Society of Veterinary Science)
권호 표지

Bootstrap simulation for quantification of uncertainty in risk assessment

  • Chang, Ki-Yoon (Animal Health Division, Livestock Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry) ;
  • Hong, Ki-Ok (Animal Health Division, Livestock Bureau, Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry) ;
  • Pak, Son-Il (School of Veterinary Medicine and Institute of Veterinary Science, Kangwon National University)
  • 심사 : 2007.05.04
  • 발행 : 2007.06.30
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초록

The choice of input distribution in quantitative risk assessments modeling is of great importance to get unbiased overall estimates, although it is difficult to characterize them in situations where data available are too sparse or small. The present study is particularly concerned with accommodation of uncertainties commonly encountered in the practice of modeling. The authors applied parametric and non-parametric bootstrap simulation methods which consist of re-sampling with replacement, in together with the classical Student-t statistics based on the normal distribution. The implications of these methods were demonstrated through an empirical analysis of trade volume from the amount of chicken and pork meat imported to Korea during the period of 1998-2005. The results of bootstrap method were comparable to the classical techniques, indicating that bootstrap can be an alternative approach in a specific context of trade volume. We also illustrated on what extent the bias corrected and accelerated non-parametric bootstrap method produces different estimate of interest, as compared by non-parametric bootstrap method.

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