조명전기설비학회논문지 (Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers)

한국조명전기설비학회 (The Korean Institute of IIIuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers)
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계통 부하량과 풍력발전의 확률적 관계를 고려한 발전량 적정성 평가 연구

A Study on Generation Adequacy Assessment Considering Probabilistic Relation Between System Load and Wind-Power

  • 김광원 (울산대학교 전기전자정보시스템공학부) ;
  • 현승호 (울산대학교 전기전자정보시스템공학부)
  • 발행 : 2007.12.31
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초록

본 논문에서는 발전량 적정성 평가를 위한 풍력발전 모형의 제안하였다. 풍력 발전량과 계통 부하량은 일 년을 주기로 하는 주기함수 형태이므로, 둘 중 하나의 물리량이 주어지면 다른 물리량의 발생 확률을 계산할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 가상의 데이터를 바탕으로 두 물리량을 k-means 클러스터링 알고리즘으로 단계화하였고, 각 단계간의 확률적인 관계를 계산하였다. 제안하는 풍력발전 모형은 상태샘플링(state sampling)에 기반을 둔 몬테카를로 모의로써 발전량 적정성을 평가하는데 적합하다.

This paper presents the wind-power model for generation adequacy assessment. Both wind-power and system load depend on time of a year and show their periodic nature with similar periods. Therefore, the two quantities have some probabilistic relations, and if one of them is given, the other can be decided with some probability. In this paper, the two quantities are quantized by k-means clustering algorithm and related probabilities among the cluster centers are calculated using sequential wind-power and system load data. The proposed model is highly expected to be applied for generation adequacy assessment by Monte-Carlo simulation with state sampling method.

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참고문헌

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