Population Projections for Local Governments in Korea: Based on Hamilton-Perry & Auto Regression

Population projections provides useful basic information for the need of economic resources and labor forces. The National Office of Statistics(NSO) presents population projections for the whole country and some of higher level local governments, but not do projections of the lower level local governments. Here are some projection methods as Hamilton-Perry methods and modified auto regression methods, which are compared to cohort method published by NSO in case of Daegu metropolitan city. The simulation results are a little stagnant with modified auto regression, but a little declines are shown with NSO and HP method, for 2010, 2015 and 2020 year, respectively.