System Dynamics Model for Analyzing and Forecasting the National Energy-Economy-Environment(3E) Changes under Levying of Carbon Tax

탄소세 부과에 따른 국내 에너지-경제-환경(3E) 변화 분석 및 예측을 위한 시스템다이내믹스 모델 개발

In this paper, an energy-economy-environment dynamic simulation model was developed to using system dynamics methodology. It describes current energy-economy-environment systems and forecasts changes caused by levying of carbon tax. The model is composed of three modules: an energy module, an economic module and an environmental module. Variables are interrelated in each module, and three modules are linked by several linkage variables. Setting up the linkage variables is an important factor for the composition of the model. The simulation result shows a change of the national GDP, usage of energy, and $CO_2$ emissions under levying and reinvestment of carbon tax considering various scenarios for the charging cost.