통일 대비 북한 농업생산기반시설 확충방안 - 경제성 분석을 중심으로 -

Agricultural Infrastructure Expansion Plan for North Korea Providing for Unification of the Korean Peninsula - An Economic Feasibility Analysis -

We propose an Agricultural Infrastructure Expansion Plan (AIEP) for North Korea following unification from the standpoint of a united Korea's social stability. We predict the food demand after unification, according to four different development scenarios based on the AIEP. These scenarios include meeting a self-sufficient level in the staple food crop, satisfying long-term food supply and demand for the North Korean people, achieving a level of North Korean food consumption comparable to that of South Korea, and maintaining productivity to stabilize of North Korea's rural society. We present the results of a 'benefit-cost' analysis in meeting the production targets of predicted food demands after unification from a civil engineering perspective. We found that the estimated total costs would range from 15.2 to 43.0 billion dollars depending on the particular AIEP scenario. In our analysis, all of the four scenarios presented above demonstrated a high degree of economic validity. We conclude that the AIEP is a necessary and economically valid project for a united Korea's future because it would forestall the collapse of North Korea's rural communities, thereby preventing tremendous economic losses upon unification.