Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Agricultural Infrastructure Expansion Plan for North Korea Providing for Unification of the Korean Peninsula - An Economic Feasibility Analysis -

통일 대비 북한 농업생산기반시설 확충방안 - 경제성 분석을 중심으로 -

  • 권순국 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 김관수 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 농경제사회학부) ;
  • 이정재 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 이제명 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 대학원) ;
  • 박창근 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 대학원)
  • Published : 2006.11.30
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Abstract

We propose an Agricultural Infrastructure Expansion Plan (AIEP) for North Korea following unification from the standpoint of a united Korea's social stability. We predict the food demand after unification, according to four different development scenarios based on the AIEP. These scenarios include meeting a self-sufficient level in the staple food crop, satisfying long-term food supply and demand for the North Korean people, achieving a level of North Korean food consumption comparable to that of South Korea, and maintaining productivity to stabilize of North Korea's rural society. We present the results of a 'benefit-cost' analysis in meeting the production targets of predicted food demands after unification from a civil engineering perspective. We found that the estimated total costs would range from 15.2 to 43.0 billion dollars depending on the particular AIEP scenario. In our analysis, all of the four scenarios presented above demonstrated a high degree of economic validity. We conclude that the AIEP is a necessary and economically valid project for a united Korea's future because it would forestall the collapse of North Korea's rural communities, thereby preventing tremendous economic losses upon unification.

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References

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