Korea journal of population studies (한국인구학)

The Population Association of Korea (한국인구학회)
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The Effect of Price Increase on Tobacco Consumption

담배가격인상이 흡연수요에 미치는 영향

  • 김원년 (고려대학교 경제학과) ;
  • 서정하 (청주대학교 경영학과) ;
  • 김양중 (고려대학교 일반대학원 경제정책학과)
  • Published : 2006.08.25
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Abstract

Follow-up surveys with 700 smoking male adults and 300 nonsmoking male adults were performed before 20-days and after one month, three months and six months since government's price increase enforcement. 572 smokers among 700 and 198 non-smokers among 300 were remained and followed up till the end of the surveys. The cessation rate of smokers are 6.6%(after one month), 10.3%(after three months) and 11.0%(after six months). Smoking cessation ratio of new smoking quilters who considered that price increase as a motive of their giving-up smoking are 76.3%, 81.3% and 65.1%. The smokers estimates of short-run price elasticities from follow-up surveys are -0.6853, -0.6230 and -0.5482 at each survey period. Including non-smokers, estimates of short-run price elasticities from follow-up surveys are -0.3920, -0.3739 and -0.3481 at each survey period. The effect of demand decrease caused by KR\500 price increase stayed with little difference for six months because price elasticities between each survey period showed no much change. Effectiveness and validity of tobacco control by price increase was confirmed through the survey results. Therefore if the government want to attain long term strategic goal to decrease general smoking rate among male adult smokers by 30%, the strong smoking prohibition policy, just like the price increase of December 2004, should be continuously driven.

2004년 말 담배가격인상의 효과를 파악하기 위하여 성인남성 흡연자 700명 비흡연자 300 명으로 구성된 추적조사에서 6개월 후 네 차례의 조사가 끝날 때까지 흡연자 572명, 비흡연자 198명의 흡연행태에 관한 자료가 구축되었다. 이 자료를 활용하여 단기 가격탄력성을 추정한 결과 흡연자들만의 가격탄력성은 가격인상전후 1개월, 3개월, 6개월 기간 동안에 각각 -0.6853, -0.6230, -0.5482로 추정되었고. 비흡연자를 포함한 경우에는 -0.3920, -0.3739, -0.3081로 추정되었다. 이 결과는 흡연율 감소를 위하여서는 대폭적인 가격인상이 매우 효과적이며 따라서 추가적인 가격인상이 추진되어야 한다는 점을 암시하고 있다.

Keywords

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