초록
A spatial interpolation scheme incorporating local geographic potential for cold air accumulation (TOPSIM) was used to test the feasibility of operational frost warning in Chatancheon basin in Yeoncheon County, where the introduction of new crops including temperate zone fruits is planned. Air temperature from April to June 2003 was measured at one-minute intervals at four locations within the basin. Cold-air accumulation potentials (CAP) at 4 sites were calculated for 3 different catchment scales: a rectangular area of 65 x 55 km which covers the whole county, the KOWACO (Korea Water Corporation) hydrologic unit which includes all 4 sites, and the sub-basins delineated by a stream network analysis of the digital elevation model. Daily minimum temperatures at 4 sites were calculated by interpolating the perfect prognosis (i.e., synoptic observations at KMA Dongducheon station) based on TOPSIM with 3 different CAPs. Mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean square error were calculated for 45 days with no precipitation to test the model performance. For the 3 flat locations, little difference was detected in model performance among 3 catchment areas, but the best performance was found with the CAPs calculated for sub-basins at one site (Oksan) on complex terrain. When TOPSIM loaded with sub-basin CAPs was applied to Oksan to predict frost events during the fruit flowering period in 2004, the goodness of fit was sufficient for making an operational frost warning system for mountainous areas.
