보건행정학회지 (Health Policy and Management)

  • 제13권3호
  • /
  • Pages.91-103
  • /
  • 2003
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  • 1225-4266(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2289-0149(eISSN)
한국보건행정학회 (Korean Academy of Health Policy and Management)
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전이함수모형을 이용한 국민의료비 예측

Forecast of health expenditure by transfer function model

  • 김상아 (연세대학교 대학원 보건학과) ;
  • 박웅섭 (관동대학교 의과대학 예방의학교실) ;
  • 김용익 (서울대학교 의과대학 의료관리학교실)
  • 발행 : 2003.09.01
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초록

The purpose of this study was to provide basic reference data for stabilization scheme of health expenditure through forecasting of health expenditure. The authors analyzed the health expenditure from 1985 to 2000 that had been calculated by Korean institute for health and social affair using transfer function model as ARIMA model with input series. They used GDP as the input series for more precise forecasting. The model of error term was identified ARIMA(2,2,0) and Portmanteau statics of residuals was not significant. Forecasting health expenditure as percent of GDP at 2010 was 6.8%, under assumption of 5% GDP increase rate. Moreover that was 7.4%, under assumption of 3% GDP increase rate and that was 6.4%, under assumption of 7% GDP increase rate.

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참고문헌

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