한국경영과학회지 (Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society)

  • 제26권4호
  • /
  • Pages.83-97
  • /
  • 2001
  • /
  • 1225-1119(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2733-4759(eISSN)
한국경영과학회 (The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society)
권호 표지

실물 옵션을 이용한 최적 투자 의사결정 시기 선택 모형

Optimal Investment Decision Timing Model Using Real Options Approach

  • 발행 : 2001.12.01
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

Net Present Value (NPV) criterion has been the most widely used criterion to evaluate investment opportunities. However, the analysis based on the NPV criterion falls to consider the managerial flexibility of deferring decisions until major uncertainty is resolved. Recently, real options method attracted a lot of attention as a Powerful approach to address the problem. If investment decision is deferred, the value of the investment opportunity increases but opportunity cost increases at the same time. Therefore, it is important to decide the optimal timing how long the decision can be deferred. In this paper, we developed a model deciding the optimal decision timing. Using the real options approach, the model derived the optimal deferring time until a decision is made. Then, the model was applied to a Korean mobile telecommunications company who wants to invest on the wireless resale business. We believe that this model would be very useful to overcome the problem of NPV decision criterion. With this approach, we can make contingent decisions based on the observation of uncertainly resolutions.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. 정보통신정책 Issue v.10 no.11 재판매시장의 환경변화와 사업전략분석 김진기
  2. 시티폰 사업 추진을 위한 경영전략분석 v.2 안재현(외.)
  3. IE Interface v.13 no.4 설문자료를 이용한 국내 PCS 재판매 서비스 수요예측 전덕빈(외.)
  4. Real Options:Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World Amram;Martha;Nalin Kulatilaka
  5. Financial Management v.19 Managing Investment Opportunities under Price Uncertainty:From Last Chance to Wait and See Strategies Bjerksund, P.;S. Ekern
  6. Journal of Political Economy v.3 The pricing of options and corporate liabilities Black, F.;M. Scholes
  7. Management Science v.45 no.5 Real Option and Product Life Cycles Bollen, P.B.;Nicolas
  8. The McKinsey Quarterly v.3 Making Real Options Real Copeland, Thomas E.;Philip T. Keenan
  9. Options Markets Cox, John C.;Mark Rubinstein
  10. Harvard Business Review The Options Approach to Capital Investment Dixit, Avinash K.;Robert S. Pindyck
  11. Investment in Pollutino Compliance Options:The Case of Georgia Power Edelson, M.E.;F.L. reinhardt
  12. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control v.22 Optimal Timing of Technology Adoption Fazin, Y.H.;K.J.M. Huisman;P.M. Kort
  13. Management Science v.34 no.6 Decision Analysis:Practice and Promise Howard, Ronald A.
  14. Options, Futures, and Other Derivative Securities Hull, John C.
  15. Journal of Business v.65 no.1 Waiting to Invest:Investment and Uncertainty Ingersoll, J.;S. Ross
  16. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance v.38 Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options Lander, Diane M.;George E. Pinches
  17. The Energy Journal v.19 The Management of Flexibility in the Upstream petroleum Business Laughton, D.
  18. The McKinsey Quarterly v.3 The Real Power of Real Options Leslie, Keith J.;Max P.Michaels
  19. Marketing Models Lilien, G.L.;P. Kotler;K.S. Moorthy
  20. Marketing Engineering Lilien, G.L.;A. Rangaswamy
  21. Harvard Business Review A General Manager's Guide to Valuation Luehrman, Timothy A.
  22. Harvard Business Review Investment Opportunities as Real Options:Getting Started on the Numbers Luehrman, Timothy A.
  23. Journal of Marketing v.54 no.1 New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing:A Review and Directions for Research Mahajan, V.;E. Muller;F.M. Bass
  24. The Quarterly Journal of Economics v.101 no.4 The Value of Waiting to Invest McDonal, Robert;Daniel Siegel
  25. Academy of Management Review v.22 A Real Options Logic for Initiating Technology Positioning Investment McGrath, R.G.
  26. R&D Management v.29 no.3 Real Options Valuation:The New Frontier in R&D Project Evaluation? Perlitz, Manfred;Thorsten Peske;Randolf Schrank
  27. Journal of Economic Literature v.29 no.3 Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment Pindyck, Robert S.
  28. Corporate Finance Ross, S.A.;R.W. Westerfield;J.F. Jaffe
  29. International Journal of Production Economics v.54 A Note on the Survey of Project Evaluation Techniques in Major Corporations Segelod, E.
  30. Information Rules Shapiro, Carkl;Hal R. Varian
  31. Operations Research v.47 no.1 Options in the Real World:Lessons Learned in Evaluation Oil and Gas Investments Smith, James E.;Kevin F. Mccardle
  32. Real Options in Capital Investment:Models, Strategies, and Application Trigeorgis, Lenos